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COVID-19 simulation of the 13-Jan-2021, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option f (Poland day #0 (tau_f = 30 days) : 31-Jan-2020) : 12-Jan-2021
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Country : Poland
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 31-Jan-2020 (day #0)
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---> Last available day in database : 12-Jan-2021 (day #347)
---> Today : 13-Jan-2021 (day #348)
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Manual parameter determination.
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Simulations parameters (infection fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.3%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.5, qc_inf : 0.074, tau_ref : 21, Dtau : 10
From day #150 --> qc_0 : 0.105, qc_inf : 0.068, tau_ref : 185, Dtau : 7
From day #206 --> qc_0 : 0.136, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 256, Dtau : 14
From day #305 --> qc_0 : 0.07, qc_inf : 0.0833, tau_ref : 305, Dtau : 5
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Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.76647
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Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 6
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 83%, Nmax = 31,666,667
Effective reproduction number (R) : 1
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 35.5 (%)
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Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 32,390
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 31,593
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Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 852
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Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (31-Jan-2020) : 88 (28-Apr-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 22
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (12-Mar-2020) : 47 (28-Apr-2020)
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Estimated duration of the outbreak : 390 days until 24-Feb-2021
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Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #390) : 44,002
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Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 06-Apr-2020 (day #66)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 22-May-2020 (day #112)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 13-Nov-2020 (day #287)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 06-Dec-2020 (day #310)
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Day of the end of the first lockdown (27-Apr-2020) : #87
Estimated number of daily infections (27-Apr-2020) : 5346
Estimated number of daily deaths (27-Apr-2020) : 22
Observed number of daily fatalities (27-Apr-2020) : 27
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (27-Apr-2020) : 485
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (27-Apr-2020) : 562
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