****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** COVID-19 simulation of the 30-Oct-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr) ---> Data last day, option f (Netherlands day #0 : 27-Jan-2020) : 29-Oct-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Netherlands Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 27-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 29-Oct-2020 (day #276) ---> Today : 30-Oct-2020 (day #277) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.32%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.8, qc_inf : 0.049, tau_ref : 12, Dtau : 11 From day #110 --> qc_0 : 0.085, qc_inf : 0.085, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 1 From day #135 --> qc_0 : 0.085, qc_inf : 0.059, tau_ref : 3, Dtau : 3 From day #163 --> qc_0 : 0.18, qc_inf : 0.04, tau_ref : 27, Dtau : 30 From day #215 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.0833, tau_ref : 257, Dtau : 4 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.83895 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 9.6 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 90%, Nmax = 15,408,333 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.003 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 19 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 7,610 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 7,258 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 442 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (27-Jan-2020) : 76 (12-Apr-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 162 --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 340 days until 01-Jan-2021 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #340) : 14,055 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 20-Mar-2020 (day #53) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 02-Apr-2020 (day #66) ****************************************************************************************** ******************************************************************************************