****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** COVID-19 simulation of the 24-Nov-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr) ---> Data last day, option f (Netherlands day #0 : 27-Jan-2020) : 23-Nov-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Netherlands Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 27-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 23-Nov-2020 (day #301) ---> Today : 24-Nov-2020 (day #302) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (infection fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.32%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.8, qc_inf : 0.049, tau_ref : 12, Dtau : 11 From day #100 --> qc_0 : 0.085, qc_inf : 0.085, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 1 From day #117 --> qc_0 : 0.085, qc_inf : 0.059, tau_ref : 3, Dtau : 3 From day #158 --> qc_0 : 0.14, qc_inf : 0.04, tau_ref : 181, Dtau : 6 From day #198 --> qc_0 : 0.123, qc_inf : 0.06, tau_ref : 258, Dtau : 10 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.82211 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 9.6 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 90%, Nmax = 15,408,333 Effective reproduction number (R) : 0.73 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 19.4 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 9,444 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 8,945 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 549 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (27-Jan-2020) : 76 (12-Apr-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 162 --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 370 days until 31-Jan-2021 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #370) : 11,069 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 20-Mar-2020 (day #53) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 02-Apr-2020 (day #66) ****************************************************************************************** ******************************************************************************************