******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
COVID-19 simulation of the 13-Jan-2021, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option f (Netherlands day #0 (tau_f = 30 days) : 27-Jan-2020) : 12-Jan-2021
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : Netherlands
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 27-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 12-Jan-2021 (day #351)
---> Today : 13-Jan-2021 (day #352)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (infection fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.32%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.8, qc_inf : 0.049, tau_ref : 12, Dtau : 11
From day #100 --> qc_0 : 0.085, qc_inf : 0.085, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 1
From day #117 --> qc_0 : 0.085, qc_inf : 0.059, tau_ref : 3, Dtau : 3
From day #158 --> qc_0 : 0.14, qc_inf : 0.04, tau_ref : 181, Dtau : 6
From day #198 --> qc_0 : 0.123, qc_inf : 0.06, tau_ref : 258, Dtau : 10
From day #278 --> qc_0 : 0.075, qc_inf : 0.075, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 1
From day #290 --> qc_0 : 0.098, qc_inf : 0.06, tau_ref : 315, Dtau : 1
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.76981
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 9.6
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 90%, Nmax = 15,408,333
Effective reproduction number (R) : 0.72
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 25.2 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 12,851
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 12,563
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 747
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (27-Jan-2020) : 76 (12-Apr-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 162
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (14-Oct-2020) : -185 (12-Apr-2020)
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 390 days until 20-Feb-2021
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #390) : 13,962
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 20-Mar-2020 (day #53)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 02-Apr-2020 (day #66)
---------
Day of the end of the first lockdown (01-Dec-2020) : #309
Estimated number of daily infections (01-Dec-2020) : 27546
Estimated number of daily deaths (01-Dec-2020) : 57
Observed number of daily fatalities (01-Dec-2020) : 62
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (01-Dec-2020) : 9936
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (01-Dec-2020) : 9438
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************