****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** COVID-19 simulation of the 30-Oct-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr) ---> Data last day, option f (Mexico day #0 : 30-Jan-2020) : 29-Oct-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Mexico Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 30-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 29-Oct-2020 (day #273) ---> Today : 30-Oct-2020 (day #274) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.15%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.5, qc_inf : 0.081, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 22 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.43351 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 6 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 83%, Nmax = 105,166,667 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 0.972 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 56.4 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 94,581 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 90,773 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 749 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (30-Jan-2020) : 159 (07-Jul-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 620 --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 340 days until 04-Jan-2021 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #340) : 119,799 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 07-Apr-2020 (day #68) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 24-Apr-2020 (day #85) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 26-May-2020 (day #117) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 14-Jun-2020 (day #136) Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 30-Jun-2020 (day #152) ****************************************************************************************** ******************************************************************************************