****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** COVID-19 simulation of the 27-Sep-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr) ---> Data last day, option f (Mexico day #0 : 30-Jan-2020) : 26-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Mexico Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 30-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 26-Sep-2020 (day #240) ---> Today : 27-Sep-2020 (day #241) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.15%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.5, qc_inf : 0.081, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 22 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.6219 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 6.5 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 85%, Nmax = 106,784,615 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.053 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 49.3 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 79,468 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 76,243 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 630 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (30-Jan-2020) : 159 (07-Jul-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 620 --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 05-Dec-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 109,334 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 07-Apr-2020 (day #68) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 24-Apr-2020 (day #85) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 26-May-2020 (day #117) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 14-Jun-2020 (day #136) Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 30-Jun-2020 (day #152) ****************************************************************************************** ******************************************************************************************