****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** COVID-19 simulation of the 24-Nov-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr) ---> Data last day, option f (Mexico day #0 : 30-Jan-2020) : 23-Nov-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Mexico Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 30-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 23-Nov-2020 (day #298) ---> Today : 24-Nov-2020 (day #299) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (infection fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.15%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.5, qc_inf : 0.081, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 22 From day #250 --> qc_0 : 0.09, qc_inf : 0.09, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 1 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.40817 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 6 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 83%, Nmax = 105,166,667 Effective reproduction number (R) : 1.08 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 66.7 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 106,447 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 101,926 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 843 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (30-Jan-2020) : 159 (07-Jul-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 620 --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 370 days until 03-Feb-2021 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #370) : 169,880 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 07-Apr-2020 (day #68) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 24-Apr-2020 (day #85) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 26-May-2020 (day #117) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 14-Jun-2020 (day #136) Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 30-Jun-2020 (day #152) Threshold 100000 fatalities estimated : 10-Nov-2020 (day #285) ****************************************************************************************** ******************************************************************************************