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COVID-19 simulation of the 01-Aug-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option f (Mexico) : 03-Aug-2020
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Country : Mexico
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 7-Feb-2020 (day #0)
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---> Last available day in database : 03-Aug-2020 (day #178)
---> Today : 01-Aug-2020 (day #179)
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Manual parameter determination.
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Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.15%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.65, qc_inf : 0.086, tau_ref : 3, Dtau : 16
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Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.6804
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Estimated initial basic reproduction number (R0) : 8.45
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 88%, Nmax = 111,265,089
Actual estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 1.118
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 37 (%)
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Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 47,644
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 46,688
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Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 378
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Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (7-Feb-2020) by herd immunity : 268 (01-Nov-2020)
No outbreak peak by lockdown -> residual contamination rate must be lowered.
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Estimated duration of the outbreak : 268 days until 01-Nov-2020
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Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #268) : 163,010
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Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 09-Apr-2020 (day #62)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 24-Apr-2020 (day #77)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 28-May-2020 (day #111)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 18-Jun-2020 (day #132)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 06-Jul-2020 (day #150)
Threshold 100000 fatalities estimated : 05-Oct-2020 (day #241)
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COVID-19 simulation of the 01-Aug-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option f (Mexico) : 31-Jul-2020
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Country : Mexico
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 4-Feb-2020 (day #0)
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---> Last available day in database : 31-Jul-2020 (day #178)
---> Today : 01-Aug-2020 (day #179)
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Manual parameter determination.
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Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.15%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.65, qc_inf : 0.086, tau_ref : 3, Dtau : 16
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.6804
---------
Estimated initial basic reproduction number (R0) : 8.45
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 88%, Nmax = 111,265,089
Actual estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 1.118
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 37 (%)
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Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 47,644
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 46,688
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Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 378
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Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (4-Feb-2020) by herd immunity : 268 (29-Oct-2020)
No outbreak peak by lockdown -> residual contamination rate must be lowered.
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Estimated duration of the outbreak : 268 days until 29-Oct-2020
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Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #268) : 163,010
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Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 06-Apr-2020 (day #62)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 21-Apr-2020 (day #77)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 25-May-2020 (day #111)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 15-Jun-2020 (day #132)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 03-Jul-2020 (day #150)
Threshold 100000 fatalities estimated : 02-Oct-2020 (day #241)
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