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COVID-19 simulation of the 24-Nov-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option f (Lebanon day #0 : 23-Jan-2020) : 23-Nov-2020
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Country : Lebanon
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 23-Jan-2020 (day #0)
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---> Last available day in database : 23-Nov-2020 (day #305)
---> Today : 24-Nov-2020 (day #306)
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Manual parameter determination.
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Simulations parameters (infection fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.15%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.45, qc_inf : 0.019, tau_ref : 17, Dtau : 13
From day #68 --> qc_0 : 0.08, qc_inf : 0.08, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2
From day #120 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.08, tau_ref : 195, Dtau : 5
From day #237 --> qc_0 : 0.105, qc_inf : 0.08, tau_ref : 250, Dtau : 12
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Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.73256
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Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 5.4
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 81%, Nmax = 5,377,778
Effective reproduction number (R) : 0.964
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 13.3 (%)
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Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 941
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 911
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Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 143
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Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (23-Jan-2020) : 70 (02-Apr-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 1
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (15-Mar-2020) : 18 (02-Apr-2020)
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Estimated duration of the outbreak : 370 days until 27-Jan-2021
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Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #370) : 1,691
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Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 19-Aug-2020 (day #209)
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Day of the end of the first lockdown (26-Apr-2020) : #94
Estimated number of daily infections (26-Apr-2020) : 76
Estimated number of daily deaths (26-Apr-2020) : 0
Observed number of daily fatalities (26-Apr-2020) : 0
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 26
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 24
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