******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
COVID-19 simulation of the 13-Jan-2021, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option f (Lebanon day #0 (tau_f = 30 days) : 23-Jan-2020) : 12-Jan-2021
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : Lebanon
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 23-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 12-Jan-2021 (day #355)
---> Today : 13-Jan-2021 (day #356)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (infection fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.15%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.45, qc_inf : 0.019, tau_ref : 17, Dtau : 13
From day #68 --> qc_0 : 0.08, qc_inf : 0.08, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2
From day #120 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.08, tau_ref : 195, Dtau : 5
From day #237 --> qc_0 : 0.105, qc_inf : 0.08, tau_ref : 250, Dtau : 12
From day #324 --> qc_0 : 0.13, qc_inf : 0.13, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 1
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.59008
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 5.4
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 81%, Nmax = 5,377,778
Effective reproduction number (R) : 1.56
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 32.4 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 1,552
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 1,705
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 235
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (23-Jan-2020) : 70 (02-Apr-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 1
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (15-Mar-2020) : 18 (02-Apr-2020)
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 390 days until 16-Feb-2021
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #390) : 4,034
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 19-Aug-2020 (day #209)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 27-Nov-2020 (day #309)
---------
Day of the end of the first lockdown (26-Apr-2020) : #94
Estimated number of daily infections (26-Apr-2020) : 76
Estimated number of daily deaths (26-Apr-2020) : 0
Observed number of daily fatalities (26-Apr-2020) : 0
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 26
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 24
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
COVID-19 simulation of the 13-Jan-2021, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option f (Lebanon day #0 (tau_f = 30 days) : 23-Jan-2020) : 12-Jan-2021
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : Lebanon
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 23-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 12-Jan-2021 (day #355)
---> Today : 13-Jan-2021 (day #356)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (infection fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.15%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.45, qc_inf : 0.019, tau_ref : 17, Dtau : 13
From day #68 --> qc_0 : 0.08, qc_inf : 0.08, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2
From day #120 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.08, tau_ref : 195, Dtau : 5
From day #237 --> qc_0 : 0.105, qc_inf : 0.08, tau_ref : 250, Dtau : 12
From day #320 --> qc_0 : 0.13, qc_inf : 0.13, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 1
From day #349 --> qc_0 : 0.06, qc_inf : 0.06, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 1
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.63723
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 5.4
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 81%, Nmax = 5,377,778
Effective reproduction number (R) : 0.72
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 33.4 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 1,581
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 1,705
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 240
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (23-Jan-2020) : 70 (02-Apr-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 1
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (15-Mar-2020) : 18 (02-Apr-2020)
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 390 days until 16-Feb-2021
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #390) : 3,581
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 19-Aug-2020 (day #209)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 27-Nov-2020 (day #309)
---------
Day of the end of the first lockdown (26-Apr-2020) : #94
Estimated number of daily infections (26-Apr-2020) : 76
Estimated number of daily deaths (26-Apr-2020) : 0
Observed number of daily fatalities (26-Apr-2020) : 0
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 26
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 24
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************