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COVID-19 simulation of the 24-Nov-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 23-Nov-2020
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Country : Italy
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0)
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---> Last available day in database : 23-Nov-2020 (day #317)
---> Today : 24-Nov-2020 (day #318)
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Manual parameter determination.
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Simulations parameters (infection fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.062, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6
From day #165 --> qc_0 : 0.064, qc_inf : 0.075, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2
From day #190 --> qc_0 : 0.11, qc_inf : 0.083, tau_ref : 230, Dtau : 5
From day #245 --> qc_0 : 0.135, qc_inf : 0.0833, tau_ref : 282, Dtau : 2
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Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95471
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Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 6.84
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 85%, Nmax = 50,374,269
Effective reproduction number (R) : 1
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 31.1 (%)
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Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 48,586
Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 50,453
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Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 823
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Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 817
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (9-Mar-2020) : 19 (28-Mar-2020)
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Estimated duration of the outbreak : 370 days until 15-Jan-2021
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Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #370) (without offset) : 83,275
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #370) (with offset) : 83,557
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Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 09-Apr-2020 (day #89)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 07-May-2020 (day #117)
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Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 09-Apr-2020 (day #89)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 06-May-2020 (day #116)
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Day of the end of the first lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114
Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 16998
Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 223
Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 29298
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797
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