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COVID-19 simulation of the 13-Jan-2021, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 (tau_f = 20 days) : 21-Jan-2020) : 12-Jan-2021
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Country : Italy
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 21-Jan-2020 (day #0)
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---> Last available day in database : 12-Jan-2021 (day #357)
---> Today : 13-Jan-2021 (day #358)
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Manual parameter determination.
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Simulations parameters (infection fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.062, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6
From day #165 --> qc_0 : 0.064, qc_inf : 0.075, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2
From day #187 --> qc_0 : 0.11, qc_inf : 0.083, tau_ref : 230, Dtau : 5
From day #245 --> qc_0 : 0.14, qc_inf : 0.074, tau_ref : 282, Dtau : 5
From day #315 --> qc_0 : 0.074, qc_inf : 0.09, tau_ref : 330, Dtau : 5
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Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.93351
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Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 6.84
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 85%, Nmax = 50,374,269
Effective reproduction number (R) : 1.079
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 38.8 (%)
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Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 75,112
Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 79,819
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Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 1,273
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Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (21-Jan-2020) : 67 (28-Mar-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 796
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (9-Mar-2020) : 19 (28-Mar-2020)
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Estimated duration of the outbreak : 390 days until 14-Feb-2021
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Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #390) (without offset) : 92,692
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #390) (with offset) : 92,974
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Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #42)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #50)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 27-Mar-2020 (day #66)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 10-Apr-2020 (day #80)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 12-May-2020 (day #112)
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Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #42)
Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #50)
Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 27-Mar-2020 (day #66)
Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 10-Apr-2020 (day #80)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 10-May-2020 (day #110)
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Day of the end of the first lockdown (4-May-2020) : #104
Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 24269
Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 213
Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28462
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797
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