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COVID-19 simulation of the 13-Aug-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 12-Aug-2020
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Country : Italy
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0)
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---> Last available day in database : 12-Aug-2020 (day #214)
---> Today : 13-Aug-2020 (day #215)
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Manual parameter determination.
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Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.063, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6
From day #175 --> qc_0 : 0.09, qc_inf : 0.09, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2
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Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95783
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Estimated initial basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787
Actual estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 1.17
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 16.8 (%)
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Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 36,728
Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,225
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Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 623
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Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 836
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020)
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Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020
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Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 38,042
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 38,324
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Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88)
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Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88)
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Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114
Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 20139
Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 247
Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 30469
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797
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