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COVID-19 simulation of the 13-Jan-2021, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option f (Iran day #0 (tau_f = 30 days) : 04-Jan-2020) : 12-Jan-2021
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Country : Iran
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 04-Jan-2020 (day #0)
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---> Last available day in database : 12-Jan-2021 (day #374)
---> Today : 13-Jan-2021 (day #375)
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Manual parameter determination.
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Simulations parameters (infection fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.14%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.58, qc_inf : 0.068, tau_ref : 27, Dtau : 8
From day #110 --> qc_0 : 0.113, qc_inf : 0.064, tau_ref : 155, Dtau : 25
From day #213 --> qc_0 : 0.096, qc_inf : 0.065, tau_ref : 290, Dtau : 3
From day #351 --> qc_0 : 0.0833, qc_inf : 0.0833, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 1
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Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.97053
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Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 6.96
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 86%, Nmax = 70,218,391
Effective reproduction number (R) : 1
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 50.2 (%)
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Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 55,707
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 56,360
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Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 679
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Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (04-Jan-2020) : 82 (26-Mar-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 144
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Estimated duration of the outbreak : 390 days until 28-Jan-2021
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Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #390) : 56,726
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Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 02-Mar-2020 (day #58)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 15-Mar-2020 (day #71)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 24-Jun-2020 (day #172)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 20-Aug-2020 (day #229)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 17-Oct-2020 (day #287)
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