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COVID-19 simulation of the 01-Aug-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option f (Iran) : 31-Jul-2020
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Country : Iran
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 04-Jan-2020 (day #0)
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---> Last available day in database : 31-Jul-2020 (day #209)
---> Today : 01-Aug-2020 (day #210)
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Manual parameter determination.
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Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.14%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.58, qc_inf : 0.068, tau_ref : 27, Dtau : 8
From day #110 --> qc_0 : 0.104, qc_inf : 0.097, tau_ref : 70, Dtau : 25
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Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.89664
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Estimated initial basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.54
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 71,124,668
Actual estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 1.263
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 24.4 (%)
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Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 15,932
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 16,766
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Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 194
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Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (04-Jan-2020) : 82 (26-Mar-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 144
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Estimated duration of the outbreak : 259 days until 19-Sep-2020
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Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #259) : 83,615
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Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 02-Mar-2020 (day #58)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 15-Mar-2020 (day #71)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 29-Jun-2020 (day #177)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 12-Aug-2020 (day #221)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 02-Sep-2020 (day #242)
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COVID-19 simulation of the 01-Aug-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option f (Iran) : 31-Jul-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : Iran
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 04-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 31-Jul-2020 (day #209)
---> Today : 01-Aug-2020 (day #210)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.14%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.58, qc_inf : 0.068, tau_ref : 27, Dtau : 8
From day #110 --> qc_0 : 0.104, qc_inf : 0.097, tau_ref : 70, Dtau : 25
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.89664
---------
Estimated initial basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.54
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 71,124,668
Actual estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 1.263
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 24.4 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 15,932
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 16,766
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 194
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (04-Jan-2020) : 82 (26-Mar-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 144
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 259 days until 19-Sep-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #259) : 83,615
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 02-Mar-2020 (day #58)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 15-Mar-2020 (day #71)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 29-Jun-2020 (day #177)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 12-Aug-2020 (day #221)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 02-Sep-2020 (day #242)
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