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COVID-19 simulation of the 27-Sep-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option f (India day #0 : 22-Jan-2020) : 26-Sep-2020
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Country : India
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 22-Jan-2020 (day #0)
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---> Last available day in database : 26-Sep-2020 (day #248)
---> Today : 27-Sep-2020 (day #249)
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Manual parameter determination.
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Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.14%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.41876, qc_inf : 0.089672, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 23.5
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Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.7425
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Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 5.444
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 82%, Nmax = 1,104,464,029
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.166
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 8.8 (%)
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Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 109,411
Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 93,379
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Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 81
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Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (22-Jan-2020) : 310 (27-Nov-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 3354
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Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 27-Nov-2020
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Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 256,204
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 258,204
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Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 07-Apr-2020 (day #76)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 29-Apr-2020 (day #98)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 09-Jun-2020 (day #139)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 01-Jul-2020 (day #161)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 17-Jul-2020 (day #177)
Threshold 100000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 21-Sep-2020 (day #243)
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Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 07-Apr-2020 (day #76)
Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 29-Apr-2020 (day #98)
Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 09-Jun-2020 (day #139)
Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 27-Jun-2020 (day #157)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 14-Jul-2020 (day #174)
Threashold 100000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 20-Sep-2020 (day #242)
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