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COVID-19 simulation of the 13-Jan-2021, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option f (India day #0 (tau_f = 30 days) : 22-Jan-2020) : 12-Jan-2021
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Country : India
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 22-Jan-2020 (day #0)
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---> Last available day in database : 12-Jan-2021 (day #356)
---> Today : 13-Jan-2021 (day #357)
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Manual parameter determination.
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Simulations parameters (infection fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.14%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.41081, qc_inf : 0.089, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 24.1499
From day #220 --> qc_0 : 0.07, qc_inf : 0.0833, tau_ref : 260, Dtau : 10
From day #293 --> qc_0 : 0.07, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 1
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Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.68061
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Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 4.93
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 80%, Nmax = 1,078,542,221
Effective reproduction number (R) : 0.84
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 8.3 (%)
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Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 154,352
Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 151,529
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Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 114
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Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (22-Jan-2020) : 247 (25-Sep-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 1277
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Estimated duration of the outbreak : 390 days until 15-Feb-2021
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Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #390) (without offset) : 156,654
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #390) (with offset) : 158,654
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Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #77)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 30-Apr-2020 (day #99)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 12-Jun-2020 (day #142)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 05-Jul-2020 (day #165)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 23-Jul-2020 (day #183)
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Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #77)
Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 30-Apr-2020 (day #99)
Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 12-Jun-2020 (day #142)
Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 01-Jul-2020 (day #161)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 19-Jul-2020 (day #179)
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