****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** COVID-19 simulation of the 13-Aug-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr) ---> Data last day, option f (India day #0 : 22-Jan-2020) : 12-Aug-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : India Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 22-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 12-Aug-2020 (day #203) ---> Today : 13-Aug-2020 (day #204) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.14%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.45, qc_inf : 0.092, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 21 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.74605 --------- Estimated initial basic reproduction number (R0) : 5.85 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 83%, Nmax = 1,121,717,949 Actual estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 1.197 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 4.4 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 46,535 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 47,033 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 34 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (22-Jan-2020) : 310 (27-Nov-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 5146 --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 27-Nov-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 315,136 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 06-Apr-2020 (day #75) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 28-Apr-2020 (day #97) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 12-Jun-2020 (day #142) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 06-Jul-2020 (day #166) Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 22-Jul-2020 (day #182) Threshold 100000 fatalities estimated : 20-Sep-2020 (day #242) ****************************************************************************************** ******************************************************************************************