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COVID-19 simulation of the 01-Aug-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option f (India) : 08-Aug-2020
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Country : India
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 30-Jan-2020 (day #0)
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---> Last available day in database : 08-Aug-2020 (day #191)
---> Today : 01-Aug-2020 (day #192)
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Manual parameter determination.
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Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.14%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.45, qc_inf : 0.092, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 21
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Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.66198
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Estimated initial basic reproduction number (R0) : 5.85
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 83%, Nmax = 1,121,717,949
Actual estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 1.197
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 3.5 (%)
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Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 36,050
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 36,511
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Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 27
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Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (30-Jan-2020) : 310 (05-Dec-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 5146
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Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 05-Dec-2020
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Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 315,136
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Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 14-Apr-2020 (day #75)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 06-May-2020 (day #97)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 20-Jun-2020 (day #142)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 14-Jul-2020 (day #166)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 30-Jul-2020 (day #182)
Threshold 100000 fatalities estimated : 28-Sep-2020 (day #242)
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COVID-19 simulation of the 01-Aug-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option f (India) : 31-Jul-2020
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Country : India
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 22-Jan-2020 (day #0)
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---> Last available day in database : 31-Jul-2020 (day #191)
---> Today : 01-Aug-2020 (day #192)
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Manual parameter determination.
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Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.14%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.45, qc_inf : 0.092, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 21
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.66198
---------
Estimated initial basic reproduction number (R0) : 5.85
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 83%, Nmax = 1,121,717,949
Actual estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 1.197
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 3.5 (%)
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Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 36,050
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 36,511
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Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 27
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Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (22-Jan-2020) : 310 (27-Nov-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 5146
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Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 27-Nov-2020
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Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 315,136
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Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 06-Apr-2020 (day #75)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 28-Apr-2020 (day #97)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 12-Jun-2020 (day #142)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 06-Jul-2020 (day #166)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 22-Jul-2020 (day #182)
Threshold 100000 fatalities estimated : 20-Sep-2020 (day #242)
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