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COVID-19 simulation of the 13-Jan-2021, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option f (Germany day #0 (tau_f = 30 days) : 02-Jan-2020) : 12-Jan-2021
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Country : Germany
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 02-Jan-2020 (day #0)
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---> Last available day in database : 12-Jan-2021 (day #376)
---> Today : 13-Jan-2021 (day #377)
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Manual parameter determination.
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Simulations parameters (infection fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.35%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.73, qc_inf : 0.01, tau_ref : 3, Dtau : 2
From day #30 --> qc_0 : 0.7, qc_inf : 0.054, tau_ref : 44, Dtau : 10
From day #152 --> qc_0 : 0.083, qc_inf : 0.087, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 1
From day #249 --> qc_0 : 0.14, qc_inf : 0.1, tau_ref : 280, Dtau : 10
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Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.76109
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Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 8.76
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 89%, Nmax = 73,436,530
Effective reproduction number (R) : 1.2
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 35.2 (%)
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Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 44,999
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 42,889
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Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 543
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Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (02-Jan-2020) : 36 (07-Feb-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 0
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (17-Mar-2020) : -39 (07-Feb-2020)
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Estimated duration of the outbreak : 390 days until 26-Jan-2021
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Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #390) : 65,511
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Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 21-Mar-2020 (day #79)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 02-Apr-2020 (day #91)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 19-Oct-2020 (day #291)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 09-Dec-2020 (day #342)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 27-Dec-2020 (day #360)
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Day of the end of the first lockdown (20-Apr-2020) : #109
Estimated number of daily infections (20-Apr-2020) : 14540
Estimated number of daily deaths (20-Apr-2020) : 215
Observed number of daily fatalities (20-Apr-2020) : 276
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (20-Apr-2020) : 4683
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (20-Apr-2020) : 4862
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COVID-19 simulation of the 13-Jan-2021, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option f (Germany day #0 (tau_f = 30 days) : 02-Jan-2020) : 12-Jan-2021
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Country : Germany
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 02-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 12-Jan-2021 (day #376)
---> Today : 13-Jan-2021 (day #377)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (infection fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.35%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.73, qc_inf : 0.01, tau_ref : 3, Dtau : 2
From day #30 --> qc_0 : 0.7, qc_inf : 0.054, tau_ref : 44, Dtau : 10
From day #152 --> qc_0 : 0.083, qc_inf : 0.087, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 1
From day #249 --> qc_0 : 0.14, qc_inf : 0.1, tau_ref : 280, Dtau : 10
From day #335 --> qc_0 : 0.0833, qc_inf : 0.0833, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 1
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Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.78957
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Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 8.76
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 89%, Nmax = 73,436,530
Effective reproduction number (R) : 1
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 22.8 (%)
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Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 42,312
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 42,889
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Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 510
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Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (02-Jan-2020) : 36 (07-Feb-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 0
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (17-Mar-2020) : -39 (07-Feb-2020)
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Estimated duration of the outbreak : 390 days until 26-Jan-2021
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Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #390) : 53,350
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Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 21-Mar-2020 (day #79)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 02-Apr-2020 (day #91)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 19-Oct-2020 (day #291)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 09-Dec-2020 (day #342)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 27-Dec-2020 (day #360)
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Day of the end of the first lockdown (20-Apr-2020) : #109
Estimated number of daily infections (20-Apr-2020) : 14540
Estimated number of daily deaths (20-Apr-2020) : 215
Observed number of daily fatalities (20-Apr-2020) : 276
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (20-Apr-2020) : 4683
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (20-Apr-2020) : 4862
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