****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** COVID-19 simulation of the 27-Sep-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr) ---> Data last day, option f (France day #0 : 14-Jan-2020) : 26-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : France Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 14-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 26-Sep-2020 (day #256) ---> Today : 27-Sep-2020 (day #257) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.33%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.44, qc_inf : 0.054, tau_ref : 38, Dtau : 9 From day #138 --> qc_0 : 0.09, qc_inf : 0.085, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 2 From day #180 --> qc_0 : 0.11, qc_inf : 0.11, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 1 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.89563 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 5.72 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 83%, Nmax = 55,286,713 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.43 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 12 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 31,757 Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 31,700 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 474 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (14-Jan-2020) : 88 (11-Apr-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 489 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (16-Mar-2020) : 26 (11-Apr-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 19-Nov-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 40,924 Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 51,516 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 13-Mar-2020 (day #59) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 24-Mar-2020 (day #70) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 15-Apr-2020 (day #92) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 05-Sep-2020 (day #235) --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 13-Mar-2020 (day #59) Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 24-Mar-2020 (day #70) Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #85) Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 20-Apr-2020 (day #97) --------- Day of the end of the lockdown (11-May-2020) : #118 Estimated number of daily infections (11-May-2020) : 6811 Estimated number of daily deaths (11-May-2020) : 138 Observed number of daily fatalities (11-May-2020) : 178 Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (11-May-2020) : 17005 Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (11-May-2020) : 16994 ****************************************************************************************** ******************************************************************************************