****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** COVID-19 simulation of the 16-Sep-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr) ---> Data last day, option f (France day #0 : 14-Jan-2020) : 14-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : France Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 14-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 14-Sep-2020 (day #244) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #245) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.33%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.44, qc_inf : 0.054, tau_ref : 38, Dtau : 9 From day #138 --> qc_0 : 0.09, qc_inf : 0.085, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 2 From day #180 --> qc_0 : 0.11, qc_inf : 0.11, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 1 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.89744 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 5.72 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 83%, Nmax = 55,286,713 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.43 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 10.7 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 30,821 Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 30,999 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 460 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (14-Jan-2020) : 88 (11-Apr-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 489 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (16-Mar-2020) : 26 (11-Apr-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 19-Nov-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 40,924 Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 51,378 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 13-Mar-2020 (day #59) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 24-Mar-2020 (day #70) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 15-Apr-2020 (day #92) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 05-Sep-2020 (day #235) --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 13-Mar-2020 (day #59) Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 24-Mar-2020 (day #70) Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #85) Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 20-Apr-2020 (day #97) --------- Day of the end of the lockdown (11-May-2020) : #118 Estimated number of daily infections (11-May-2020) : 6811 Estimated number of daily deaths (11-May-2020) : 138 Observed number of daily fatalities (11-May-2020) : 178 Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (11-May-2020) : 17005 Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (11-May-2020) : 16994 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** COVID-19 simulation of the 16-Sep-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr) ---> Data last day, option f (France day #0 : 14-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : France Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 14-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #245) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #246) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.33%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.44, qc_inf : 0.054, tau_ref : 38, Dtau : 9 From day #138 --> qc_0 : 0.09, qc_inf : 0.085, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 2 From day #180 --> qc_0 : 0.11, qc_inf : 0.11, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 1 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.89761 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 5.72 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 83%, Nmax = 55,286,713 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.43 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 10.7 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 30,873 Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 30,999 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 461 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (14-Jan-2020) : 88 (11-Apr-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 489 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (16-Mar-2020) : 26 (11-Apr-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 19-Nov-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 40,924 Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 51,378 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 13-Mar-2020 (day #59) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 24-Mar-2020 (day #70) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 15-Apr-2020 (day #92) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 05-Sep-2020 (day #235) --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 13-Mar-2020 (day #59) Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 24-Mar-2020 (day #70) Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #85) Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 20-Apr-2020 (day #97) --------- Day of the end of the lockdown (11-May-2020) : #118 Estimated number of daily infections (11-May-2020) : 6811 Estimated number of daily deaths (11-May-2020) : 138 Observed number of daily fatalities (11-May-2020) : 178 Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (11-May-2020) : 17005 Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (11-May-2020) : 16994 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** 1.6*220 ans = 352 outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Italy Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.063, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6 From day #177 --> qc_0 : 0.09, qc_inf : 0.09, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2 From day #200 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.12, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 1 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95944 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.56 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 18.2 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 37,217 Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 631 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 836 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 58,482 Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 58,764 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88) Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 02-May-2020 (day #112) --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88) Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 01-May-2020 (day #111) --------- Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114 Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 20139 Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 247 Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195 Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 30469 Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 {Error: File: epidemy.m Line: 1195 Column: 35 Invalid expression. Check for missing multiplication operator, missing or unbalanced delimiters, or other syntax error. To construct matrices, use brackets instead of parentheses. Error in outbreak0 (line 54) param_autoscan = epidemy({countries{ic}},lab,automode,nofig,noscan,nodiary,nofrr0fig,keepallfigs,display,autoscan,njmax0); } outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Italy Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.063, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6 From day #177 --> qc_0 : 0.09, qc_inf : 0.09, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2 From day #200 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.09, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95944 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.225 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 17.9 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 37,216 Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 631 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 836 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 43,306 Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 43,588 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88) --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88) --------- Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114 Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 20139 Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 247 Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195 Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 30469 Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Italy Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.063, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6 From day #177 --> qc_0 : 0.09, qc_inf : 0.09, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2 From day #200 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.075, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95945 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.058 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 17.8 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 37,216 Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 631 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 836 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 40,797 Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 41,079 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88) --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88) --------- Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114 Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 20139 Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 247 Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195 Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 30469 Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Italy Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.063, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6 From day #185 --> qc_0 : 0.09, qc_inf : 0.09, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2 From day #200 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95957 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.002 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 17.4 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 37,028 Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 628 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 836 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 38,937 Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 39,219 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88) --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88) --------- Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114 Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 20139 Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 247 Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195 Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 30469 Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Italy Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.063, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6 From day #170 --> qc_0 : 0.09, qc_inf : 0.09, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2 From day #200 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.959 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.002 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 18.2 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 37,481 Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 635 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 836 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 42,031 Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 42,313 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88) --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88) --------- Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114 Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 20139 Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 247 Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195 Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 30469 Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Italy Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.063, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6 From day #170 --> qc_0 : 0.08, qc_inf : 0.08, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2 From day #200 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95955 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.002 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 17.6 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 37,166 Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 630 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 836 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 39,700 Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 39,982 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88) --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88) --------- Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114 Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 20139 Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 247 Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195 Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 30469 Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Italy Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.063, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6 From day #165 --> qc_0 : 0.08, qc_inf : 0.08, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2 From day #200 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95946 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.002 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 17.8 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 37,279 Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 632 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 836 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 40,346 Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 40,628 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88) --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88) --------- Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114 Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 20139 Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 247 Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195 Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 30469 Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Italy Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.063, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6 From day #170 --> qc_0 : 0.08, qc_inf : 0.08, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2 From day #200 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95955 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.002 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 17.6 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 37,166 Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 630 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 836 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 39,700 Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 39,982 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88) --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88) --------- Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114 Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 20139 Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 247 Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195 Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 30469 Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Italy Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.063, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6 From day #170 --> qc_0 : 0.07, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2 From day #200 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.9596 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.002 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 17.2 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 36,961 Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 626 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 836 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 38,245 Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 38,527 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88) --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88) --------- Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114 Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 20139 Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 247 Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195 Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 30469 Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Italy Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.063, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6 From day #160 --> qc_0 : 0.07, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2 From day #200 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95961 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.002 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 17.3 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 37,029 Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 628 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 836 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 38,566 Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 38,848 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88) --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88) --------- Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114 Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 20139 Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 247 Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195 Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 30469 Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Italy Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.063, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6 From day #160 --> qc_0 : 0.063, qc_inf : 0.063, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2 From day #200 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95955 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.002 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 17 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 36,863 Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 625 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 836 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 37,585 Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 37,867 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88) --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88) --------- Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114 Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 20139 Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 247 Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195 Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 30469 Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Italy Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.063, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6 From day #170 --> qc_0 : 0.08, qc_inf : 0.08, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2 From day #200 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95955 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.002 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 17.6 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 37,166 Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 630 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 836 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 39,700 Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 39,982 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88) --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88) --------- Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114 Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 20139 Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 247 Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195 Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 30469 Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Italy Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.063, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6 From day #165 --> qc_0 : 0.08, qc_inf : 0.08, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2 From day #200 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95946 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.002 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 17.8 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 37,279 Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 632 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 836 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 40,346 Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 40,628 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88) --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88) --------- Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114 Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 20139 Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 247 Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195 Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 30469 Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Italy Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.063, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6 From day #165 --> qc_0 : 0.075, qc_inf : 0.075, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2 From day #200 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.9596 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.002 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 17.5 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 37,117 Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 629 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 836 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 39,231 Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 39,513 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88) --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88) --------- Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114 Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 20139 Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 247 Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195 Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 30469 Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Italy Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.063, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6 From day #155 --> qc_0 : 0.075, qc_inf : 0.075, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2 From day #200 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95949 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.002 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 17.7 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 37,297 Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 632 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 836 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 40,093 Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 40,375 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88) --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88) --------- Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114 Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 20139 Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 247 Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195 Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 30469 Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Italy Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.063, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6 From day #145 --> qc_0 : 0.075, qc_inf : 0.075, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2 From day #200 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95917 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.002 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 18.1 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 37,575 Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 637 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 836 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 41,248 Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 41,530 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88) --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88) --------- Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114 Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 20139 Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 247 Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195 Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 30469 Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Italy Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.063, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6 From day #160 --> qc_0 : 0.075, qc_inf : 0.075, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2 From day #200 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95956 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.002 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 17.6 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 37,197 Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 630 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 836 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 39,631 Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 39,913 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88) --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88) --------- Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114 Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 20139 Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 247 Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195 Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 30469 Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Italy Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.063, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6 From day #175 --> qc_0 : 0.075, qc_inf : 0.075, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2 From day #200 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95961 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.002 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 17.3 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 37,000 Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 627 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 836 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 38,583 Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 38,865 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88) --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88) --------- Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114 Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 20139 Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 247 Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195 Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 30469 Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Italy Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.063, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6 From day #175 --> qc_0 : 0.085, qc_inf : 0.085, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2 From day #200 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95952 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.002 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 17.6 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 37,170 Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 630 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 836 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 39,865 Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 40,147 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88) --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88) --------- Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114 Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 20139 Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 247 Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195 Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 30469 Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Italy Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.063, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6 From day #165 --> qc_0 : 0.085, qc_inf : 0.085, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2 From day #200 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95908 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.002 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 18.2 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 37,488 Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 635 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 836 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 41,823 Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 42,105 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88) --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88) --------- Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114 Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 20139 Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 247 Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195 Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 30469 Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Italy Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.061, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6 From day #165 --> qc_0 : 0.085, qc_inf : 0.085, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2 From day #200 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95149 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.002 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 15.8 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 33,293 Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 564 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 798 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 35,653 Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 35,935 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 27-Mar-2020 (day #76) --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 27-Mar-2020 (day #76) --------- Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114 Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 14322 Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 201 Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195 Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28184 Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Italy Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.062, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6 From day #165 --> qc_0 : 0.085, qc_inf : 0.085, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2 From day #200 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95847 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.002 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 16.9 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 35,278 Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 598 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 817 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 38,494 Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 38,776 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 09-Apr-2020 (day #89) --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 09-Apr-2020 (day #89) --------- Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114 Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 16998 Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 223 Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195 Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 29298 Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Italy Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.062, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6 From day #165 --> qc_0 : 0.085, qc_inf : 0.085, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2 From day #190 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95737 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.002 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 17.7 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 35,617 Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 604 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 817 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 41,443 Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 41,725 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 09-Apr-2020 (day #89) --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 09-Apr-2020 (day #89) --------- Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114 Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 16998 Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 223 Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195 Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 29298 Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Italy Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.062, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6 From day #165 --> qc_0 : 0.085, qc_inf : 0.085, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2 From day #195 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.9581 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.002 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 17.2 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 35,418 Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 600 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 817 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 39,757 Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 40,039 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 09-Apr-2020 (day #89) --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 09-Apr-2020 (day #89) --------- Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114 Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 16998 Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 223 Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195 Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 29298 Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Italy Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.062, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6 From day #175 --> qc_0 : 0.085, qc_inf : 0.085, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2 From day #195 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95853 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.002 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 16.7 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 35,116 Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 595 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 817 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 37,748 Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 38,030 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 09-Apr-2020 (day #89) --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 09-Apr-2020 (day #89) --------- Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114 Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 16998 Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 223 Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195 Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 29298 Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Italy Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.062, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6 From day #165 --> qc_0 : 0.085, qc_inf : 0.085, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2 From day #195 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.9581 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.002 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 17.2 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 35,418 Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 600 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 817 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 39,757 Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 40,039 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 09-Apr-2020 (day #89) --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 09-Apr-2020 (day #89) --------- Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114 Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 16998 Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 223 Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195 Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 29298 Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Italy Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.062, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6 From day #160 --> qc_0 : 0.085, qc_inf : 0.085, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2 From day #195 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95755 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.002 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 17.6 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 35,646 Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 604 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 817 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 41,183 Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 41,465 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 09-Apr-2020 (day #89) --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 09-Apr-2020 (day #89) --------- Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114 Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 16998 Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 223 Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195 Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 29298 Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Italy Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.062, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6 From day #160 --> qc_0 : 0.062, qc_inf : 0.075, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2 From day #195 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95855 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.002 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 16.7 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 35,154 Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 596 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 817 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 37,769 Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 38,051 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 09-Apr-2020 (day #89) --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 09-Apr-2020 (day #89) --------- Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114 Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 16998 Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 223 Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195 Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 29298 Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Italy Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.062, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6 From day #160 --> qc_0 : 0.062, qc_inf : 0.075, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2 From day #195 --> qc_0 : 0.1, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95867 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 0.965 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 16.1 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 35,010 Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 593 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 817 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 35,547 Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 35,829 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) --------- Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114 Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 16998 Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 223 Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195 Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 29298 Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Italy Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.062, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6 From day #160 --> qc_0 : 0.062, qc_inf : 0.075, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2 From day #195 --> qc_0 : 0.11, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95865 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 0.984 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 16.3 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 35,073 Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 594 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 817 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 36,354 Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 36,636 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 09-Apr-2020 (day #89) --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 09-Apr-2020 (day #89) --------- Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114 Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 16998 Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 223 Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195 Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 29298 Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Italy Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.062, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6 From day #160 --> qc_0 : 0.062, qc_inf : 0.075, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2 From day #185 --> qc_0 : 0.11, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95833 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 0.984 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 16.8 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 35,337 Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 599 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 817 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 37,900 Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 38,182 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 09-Apr-2020 (day #89) --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 09-Apr-2020 (day #89) --------- Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114 Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 16998 Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 223 Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195 Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 29298 Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Italy Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.062, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6 From day #165 --> qc_0 : 0.062, qc_inf : 0.075, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2 From day #185 --> qc_0 : 0.11, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95846 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 0.984 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 16.6 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 35,237 Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 597 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 817 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 37,437 Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 37,719 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 09-Apr-2020 (day #89) --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 09-Apr-2020 (day #89) --------- Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114 Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 16998 Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 223 Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195 Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 29298 Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Italy Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.062, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6 From day #165 --> qc_0 : 0.062, qc_inf : 0.075, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2 From day #180 --> qc_0 : 0.11, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95811 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 0.984 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 17 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 35,431 Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 601 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 817 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 38,498 Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 38,780 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 09-Apr-2020 (day #89) --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 09-Apr-2020 (day #89) --------- Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114 Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 16998 Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 223 Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195 Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 29298 Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Italy Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.062, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6 From day #165 --> qc_0 : 0.062, qc_inf : 0.075, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2 From day #187 --> qc_0 : 0.11, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95852 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 0.984 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 16.5 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 35,177 Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 596 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 817 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 37,096 Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 37,378 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 09-Apr-2020 (day #89) --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 09-Apr-2020 (day #89) --------- Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114 Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 16998 Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 223 Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195 Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 29298 Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Italy Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.062, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6 From day #165 --> qc_0 : 0.064, qc_inf : 0.075, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2 From day #187 --> qc_0 : 0.11, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95852 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 0.984 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 16.6 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 35,180 Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 596 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 817 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 37,114 Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 37,396 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 09-Apr-2020 (day #89) --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 09-Apr-2020 (day #89) --------- Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114 Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 16998 Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 223 Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195 Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 29298 Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Italy Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.062, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6 From day #165 --> qc_0 : 0.064, qc_inf : 0.075, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2 From day #195 --> qc_0 : 0.11, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95864 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 0.984 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 16.3 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 35,010 Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 593 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 817 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 36,100 Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 36,382 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 09-Apr-2020 (day #89) --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 09-Apr-2020 (day #89) --------- Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114 Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 16998 Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 223 Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195 Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 29298 Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Italy Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.062, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6 From day #165 --> qc_0 : 0.064, qc_inf : 0.075, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2 From day #190 --> qc_0 : 0.11, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95859 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 0.984 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 16.4 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 35,104 Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 595 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 817 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 36,674 Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 36,956 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 09-Apr-2020 (day #89) --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75) Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 09-Apr-2020 (day #89) --------- Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114 Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 16998 Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 223 Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195 Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 29298 Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 06-Feb-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : SaoPaulo Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 06-Feb-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #222) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #223) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 1.2, qc_inf : 0.086, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 9 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.21825 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 15.6 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 94%, Nmax = 41,741,026 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.118 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 57.6 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 37,443 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 840 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (06-Feb-2020) : 310 (12-Dec-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 554 --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 12-Dec-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 76,555 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 28-Mar-2020 (day #51) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 12-Apr-2020 (day #66) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 05-Jun-2020 (day #120) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 19-Jul-2020 (day #164) Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 23-Aug-2020 (day #199) ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 06-Feb-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ********************************************************************************* Automatic single search (mode : 4) of optimal simulation parameters for SaoPaulo ********************************************************************************* Number of iterations : 1 Number of outbreak waves : 1/1 Active waves : 1 ********************************************************************************* ----- Outbreak wave number : 1 ----- Ntot_dead_ref_0 = 62946 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : SaoPaulo Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 06-Feb-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #222) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #223) --------- --------- Initial simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 1.2, qc_inf : 0.086, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 9 Optimal simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.87915, qc_inf : 0.083712, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 12.0108 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.31989 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 11.429 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 91%, Nmax = 40,697,648 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.088 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 54 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 37,331 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 837 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (06-Feb-2020) : 310 (12-Dec-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 306 --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 12-Dec-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 62,946 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 02-Apr-2020 (day #56) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 17-Apr-2020 (day #71) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 02-Jun-2020 (day #117) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 12-Jul-2020 (day #157) Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 19-Aug-2020 (day #195) ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 06-Feb-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ********************************************************************************* Automatic single search (mode : 4) of optimal simulation parameters for SaoPaulo ********************************************************************************* Number of iterations : 1 Number of outbreak waves : 1/1 Active waves : 1 ********************************************************************************* ----- Outbreak wave number : 1 ----- Ntot_dead_ref_0 = 62946 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : SaoPaulo Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 06-Feb-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #222) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #223) --------- --------- Initial simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 1.2, qc_inf : 0.086, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 9 Optimal simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.87915, qc_inf : 0.083712, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 12.0108 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.31989 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 11.429 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 91%, Nmax = 40,697,648 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.088 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 54 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 37,331 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 837 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (06-Feb-2020) : 310 (12-Dec-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 306 --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 12-Dec-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 62,946 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 02-Apr-2020 (day #56) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 17-Apr-2020 (day #71) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 02-Jun-2020 (day #117) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 12-Jul-2020 (day #157) Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 19-Aug-2020 (day #195) ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 06-Feb-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ********************************************************************************* Automatic single search (mode : 4) of optimal simulation parameters for SaoPaulo ********************************************************************************* Number of iterations : 1 Number of outbreak waves : 1/1 Active waves : 1 ********************************************************************************* ----- Outbreak wave number : 1 ----- Ntot_dead_ref_0 = 62946 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : SaoPaulo Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 06-Feb-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #222) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #223) --------- --------- Initial simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 1.2, qc_inf : 0.086, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 9 Optimal simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.87915, qc_inf : 0.083712, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 12.0108 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.31989 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 11.429 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 91%, Nmax = 40,697,648 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.088 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 54 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 37,331 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 837 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (06-Feb-2020) : 310 (12-Dec-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 306 --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 12-Dec-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 62,946 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 02-Apr-2020 (day #56) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 17-Apr-2020 (day #71) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 02-Jun-2020 (day #117) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 12-Jul-2020 (day #157) Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 19-Aug-2020 (day #195) ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 06-Feb-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ********************************************************************************* Automatic single search (mode : 4) of optimal simulation parameters for SaoPaulo ********************************************************************************* Number of iterations : 1 Number of outbreak waves : 1/1 Active waves : 1 ********************************************************************************* ----- Outbreak wave number : 1 ----- Ntot_dead_ref_0 = 62946 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : SaoPaulo Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 06-Feb-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #222) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #223) --------- --------- Initial simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 1.2, qc_inf : 0.086, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 9 Optimal simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.87915, qc_inf : 0.083712, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 12.0108 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.31989 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 11.429 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 91%, Nmax = 40,697,648 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.088 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 54 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 37,331 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 837 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (06-Feb-2020) : 310 (12-Dec-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 306 --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 12-Dec-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 62,946 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 02-Apr-2020 (day #56) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 17-Apr-2020 (day #71) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 02-Jun-2020 (day #117) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 12-Jul-2020 (day #157) Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 19-Aug-2020 (day #195) ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 06-Feb-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ********************************************************************************* Automatic single search (mode : 3) of optimal simulation parameters for SaoPaulo ********************************************************************************* Number of iterations : 1 Number of outbreak waves : 1/1 Active waves : 1 ********************************************************************************* ----- Outbreak wave number : 1 ----- Ntot_dead_ref_0 = 62946 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : SaoPaulo Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 06-Feb-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #222) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #223) --------- --------- Initial simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 1.2, qc_inf : 0.086, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 9 Optimal simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.87915, qc_inf : 0.083712, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 12.0108 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.31989 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 11.429 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 91%, Nmax = 40,697,648 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.088 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 54 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 37,331 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 837 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (06-Feb-2020) : 310 (12-Dec-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 306 --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 12-Dec-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 62,946 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 02-Apr-2020 (day #56) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 17-Apr-2020 (day #71) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 02-Jun-2020 (day #117) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 12-Jul-2020 (day #157) Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 19-Aug-2020 (day #195) ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 06-Feb-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : SaoPaulo Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 06-Feb-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #222) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #223) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 1.2, qc_inf : 0.086, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 9 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.21825 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 15.6 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 94%, Nmax = 41,741,026 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.118 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 57.6 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 37,443 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 840 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (06-Feb-2020) : 310 (12-Dec-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 554 --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 12-Dec-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 76,555 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 28-Mar-2020 (day #51) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 12-Apr-2020 (day #66) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 05-Jun-2020 (day #120) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 19-Jul-2020 (day #164) Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 23-Aug-2020 (day #199) ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 06-Feb-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ********************************************************************************* Automatic single search (mode : 3) of optimal simulation parameters for SaoPaulo ********************************************************************************* Number of iterations : 1 Number of outbreak waves : 1/1 Active waves : 1 ********************************************************************************* ----- Outbreak wave number : 1 ----- Ntot_dead_ref_0 = 62946 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : SaoPaulo Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 06-Feb-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #222) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #223) --------- --------- Initial simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 1.2, qc_inf : 0.086, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 9 Optimal simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.87915, qc_inf : 0.083712, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 12.0108 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.31989 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 11.429 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 91%, Nmax = 40,697,648 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.088 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 54 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 37,331 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 837 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (06-Feb-2020) : 310 (12-Dec-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 306 --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 12-Dec-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 62,946 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 02-Apr-2020 (day #56) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 17-Apr-2020 (day #71) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 02-Jun-2020 (day #117) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 12-Jul-2020 (day #157) Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 19-Aug-2020 (day #195) ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 06-Feb-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ********************************************************************************* Automatic single search (mode : 3) of optimal simulation parameters for SaoPaulo ********************************************************************************* Number of iterations : 1 Number of outbreak waves : 1/1 Active waves : 1 ********************************************************************************* ----- Outbreak wave number : 1 ----- Ntot_dead_ref_0 = 62946 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : SaoPaulo Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 06-Feb-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #222) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #223) --------- --------- Initial simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 1.2, qc_inf : 0.086, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 9 Optimal simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.87915, qc_inf : 0.083712, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 12.0108 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.31989 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 11.429 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 91%, Nmax = 40,697,648 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.088 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 54 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 37,331 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 837 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (06-Feb-2020) : 310 (12-Dec-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 306 --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 12-Dec-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 62,946 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 02-Apr-2020 (day #56) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 17-Apr-2020 (day #71) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 02-Jun-2020 (day #117) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 12-Jul-2020 (day #157) Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 19-Aug-2020 (day #195) ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 06-Feb-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ********************************************************************************* Automatic single search (mode : 3) of optimal simulation parameters for SaoPaulo ********************************************************************************* Number of iterations : 1 Number of outbreak waves : 1/1 Active waves : 1 ********************************************************************************* ----- Outbreak wave number : 1 ----- Ntot_dead_ref_0 = 62946 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : SaoPaulo Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 06-Feb-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #222) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #223) --------- --------- Initial simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 1.2, qc_inf : 0.086, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 9 Optimal simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.87915, qc_inf : 0.083712, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 12.0108 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.31989 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 11.429 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 91%, Nmax = 40,697,648 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.088 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 54 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 37,331 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 837 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (06-Feb-2020) : 310 (12-Dec-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 306 --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 12-Dec-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 62,946 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 02-Apr-2020 (day #56) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 17-Apr-2020 (day #71) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 02-Jun-2020 (day #117) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 12-Jul-2020 (day #157) Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 19-Aug-2020 (day #195) ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 06-Feb-2020) : 25-Sep-2020 ********************************************************************************* Automatic single search (mode : 3) of optimal simulation parameters for SaoPaulo ********************************************************************************* Number of iterations : 1 Number of outbreak waves : 1/1 Active waves : 1 ********************************************************************************* ----- Outbreak wave number : 1 ----- Ntot_dead_ref_0 = 56870 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : SaoPaulo Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 06-Feb-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 25-Sep-2020 (day #232) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #233) --------- --------- Initial simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 1.2, qc_inf : 0.086, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 9 Optimal simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.60147, qc_inf : 0.082783, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 16.87 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.34211 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.819 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 38,896,059 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.076 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 52.9 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 37,143 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 833 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (06-Feb-2020) : 165 (20-Jul-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 266 --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 12-Dec-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 56,870 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 10-Apr-2020 (day #64) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 28-Apr-2020 (day #82) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 13-Jun-2020 (day #128) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 21-Jul-2020 (day #166) Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 28-Aug-2020 (day #204) ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 06-Feb-2020) : 25-Sep-2020 ********************************************************************************* Automatic single search (mode : 3) of optimal simulation parameters for SaoPaulo ********************************************************************************* Number of iterations : 1 Number of outbreak waves : 1/1 Active waves : 1 ********************************************************************************* ----- Outbreak wave number : 1 ----- Ntot_dead_ref_0 = 56870 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : SaoPaulo Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 06-Feb-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 25-Sep-2020 (day #232) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #233) --------- --------- Initial simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.6, qc_inf : 0.083, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 17 Optimal simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.60147, qc_inf : 0.082783, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 16.87 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.34211 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.819 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 38,896,059 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.076 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 52.9 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 37,143 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 833 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (06-Feb-2020) : 165 (20-Jul-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 266 --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 12-Dec-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 56,870 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 10-Apr-2020 (day #64) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 28-Apr-2020 (day #82) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 13-Jun-2020 (day #128) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 21-Jul-2020 (day #166) Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 28-Aug-2020 (day #204) ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 16-Feb-2020) : 05-Oct-2020 ********************************************************************************* Automatic single search (mode : 3) of optimal simulation parameters for SaoPaulo ********************************************************************************* Number of iterations : 1 Number of outbreak waves : 1/1 Active waves : 1 ********************************************************************************* ----- Outbreak wave number : 1 ----- Ntot_dead_ref_0 = 56870 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : SaoPaulo Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 16-Feb-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 05-Oct-2020 (day #232) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #233) --------- --------- Initial simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.6, qc_inf : 0.083, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 17 Optimal simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.60147, qc_inf : 0.082783, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 16.87 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.34211 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.819 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 38,896,059 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.076 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 52.9 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 37,143 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 833 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (16-Feb-2020) : 165 (30-Jul-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 266 --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 22-Dec-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 56,870 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 20-Apr-2020 (day #64) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 08-May-2020 (day #82) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 23-Jun-2020 (day #128) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 31-Jul-2020 (day #166) Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 07-Sep-2020 (day #204) ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 24-Jan-2020) : 12-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : SaoPaulo Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 24-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 12-Sep-2020 (day #232) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #233) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.6, qc_inf : 0.083, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 17 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.22267 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.8 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 38,882,051 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.079 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 59.3 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 41,362 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 927 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (24-Jan-2020) : 186 (28-Jul-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 299 --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 29-Nov-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 64,418 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 28-Mar-2020 (day #64) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 15-Apr-2020 (day #82) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 29-May-2020 (day #126) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 02-Jul-2020 (day #160) Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 04-Aug-2020 (day #193) ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 24-Jan-2020) : 12-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : SaoPaulo Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 24-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 12-Sep-2020 (day #232) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #233) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.6, qc_inf : 0.083, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 16 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : -0.039601 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.8 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 38,882,051 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.079 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 27.4 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 19,202 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 431 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (24-Jan-2020) : 176 (18-Jul-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 134 --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 29-Nov-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 29,523 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 30-Mar-2020 (day #66) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 20-Apr-2020 (day #87) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 05-Jul-2020 (day #163) ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 24-Jan-2020) : 12-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : SaoPaulo Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 24-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 12-Sep-2020 (day #232) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #233) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.8, qc_inf : 0.083, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 16 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : -916.3443 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 10.4 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 90%, Nmax = 40,311,538 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.079 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 983.6 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 685,553 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 15,371 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (24-Jan-2020) : 182 (24-Jul-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 4975 --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 29-Nov-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 1,068,513 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 18-Mar-2020 (day #54) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 28-Mar-2020 (day #64) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 11-Apr-2020 (day #78) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 18-Apr-2020 (day #85) Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 23-Apr-2020 (day #90) Threshold 100000 fatalities estimated : 14-May-2020 (day #111) ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 24-Jan-2020) : 02-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : SaoPaulo Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 24-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 02-Sep-2020 (day #222) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #223) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 1.2, qc_inf : 0.083, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 16 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : -321196193.5988 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 15.6 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 94%, Nmax = 41,741,026 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.079 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 535390.8 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 363,821,011 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 8,157,422 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (24-Jan-2020) : 189 (31-Jul-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 3013639 --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 29-Nov-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 626,109,729 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 08-Mar-2020 (day #44) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 13-Mar-2020 (day #49) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 20-Mar-2020 (day #56) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 22-Mar-2020 (day #58) Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 23-Mar-2020 (day #59) Threshold 100000 fatalities estimated : 27-Mar-2020 (day #63) ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 24-Jan-2020) : 02-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : SaoPaulo Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 24-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 02-Sep-2020 (day #222) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #223) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 1.2, qc_inf : 0.083, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 8 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : -1.2557 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 15.6 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 94%, Nmax = 41,741,026 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.079 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 8 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 5,717 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 128 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (24-Jan-2020) : 108 (11-May-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 35 --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 29-Nov-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 8,731 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 19-Mar-2020 (day #55) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 19-Apr-2020 (day #86) ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 24-Jan-2020) : 02-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : SaoPaulo Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 24-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 02-Sep-2020 (day #222) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #223) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 1.2, qc_inf : 0.083, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 10 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : -5.7883 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 15.6 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 94%, Nmax = 41,741,026 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.079 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 124.9 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 88,735 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 1,990 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (24-Jan-2020) : 128 (31-May-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 581 --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 29-Nov-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 138,676 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 13-Mar-2020 (day #49) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 24-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 17-Apr-2020 (day #84) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 05-May-2020 (day #102) Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 23-May-2020 (day #120) ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 24-Jan-2020) : 02-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : SaoPaulo Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 24-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 02-Sep-2020 (day #222) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #223) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.8, qc_inf : 0.083, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 10 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : -1.7095 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 10.4 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 90%, Nmax = 40,311,538 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.079 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 2.4 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 1,701 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 38 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (24-Jan-2020) : 124 (27-May-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 11 --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 29-Nov-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 2,631 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 03-Apr-2020 (day #70) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 28-Jun-2020 (day #156) ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 24-Jan-2020) : 02-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : SaoPaulo Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 24-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 02-Sep-2020 (day #222) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #223) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.9, qc_inf : 0.083, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 10 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : -1.3361 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 11.7 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 91%, Nmax = 40,788,034 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.079 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 6.8 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 4,811 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 108 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (24-Jan-2020) : 125 (28-May-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 31 --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 29-Nov-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 7,464 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 25-Mar-2020 (day #61) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 30-Apr-2020 (day #97) ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 24-Jan-2020) : 02-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : SaoPaulo Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 24-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 02-Sep-2020 (day #222) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #223) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 1, qc_inf : 0.083, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 10 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : -0.52148 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 13 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 92%, Nmax = 41,169,231 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.079 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 18.4 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 13,128 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 294 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (24-Jan-2020) : 126 (29-May-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 85 --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 29-Nov-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 20,422 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 20-Mar-2020 (day #56) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 09-Apr-2020 (day #76) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 26-Jul-2020 (day #184) ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 24-Jan-2020) : 02-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : SaoPaulo Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 24-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 02-Sep-2020 (day #222) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #223) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 1, qc_inf : 0.083, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 12 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : -24.5871 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 13 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 92%, Nmax = 41,169,231 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.079 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 202.3 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 142,342 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 3,192 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (24-Jan-2020) : 146 (18-Jun-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 982 --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 29-Nov-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 227,140 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 15-Mar-2020 (day #51) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 26-Mar-2020 (day #62) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 16-Apr-2020 (day #83) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 28-Apr-2020 (day #95) Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 09-May-2020 (day #106) Threshold 100000 fatalities estimated : 20-Jul-2020 (day #178) ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 24-Jan-2020) : 02-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : SaoPaulo Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 24-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 02-Sep-2020 (day #222) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #223) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.7, qc_inf : 0.083, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 16 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : -13.8035 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 9.1 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 89%, Nmax = 39,698,901 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.079 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 160.8 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 110,914 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 2,487 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (24-Jan-2020) : 179 (21-Jul-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 851 --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 29-Nov-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 184,885 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 22-Mar-2020 (day #58) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 05-Apr-2020 (day #72) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 30-Apr-2020 (day #97) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 16-May-2020 (day #113) Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 29-May-2020 (day #126) Threshold 100000 fatalities estimated : 20-Aug-2020 (day #209) ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 24-Jan-2020) : 12-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : SaoPaulo Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 24-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 12-Sep-2020 (day #232) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #233) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.65, qc_inf : 0.083, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 17 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : -12.6953 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 8.45 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 88%, Nmax = 39,321,893 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.079 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 158.9 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 110,533 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 2,478 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (24-Jan-2020) : 187 (29-Jul-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 809 --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 29-Nov-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 172,877 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 24-Mar-2020 (day #60) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 07-Apr-2020 (day #74) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 04-May-2020 (day #101) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 20-May-2020 (day #117) Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 03-Jun-2020 (day #131) ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 24-Jan-2020) : 12-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : SaoPaulo Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 24-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 12-Sep-2020 (day #232) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #233) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.65, qc_inf : 0.083, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 16 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : -0.1147 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 8.45 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 88%, Nmax = 39,321,893 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.079 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 69.1 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 48,385 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 1,085 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (24-Jan-2020) : 178 (20-Jul-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 342 --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 29-Nov-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 74,674 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 26-Mar-2020 (day #62) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 11-Apr-2020 (day #78) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 21-May-2020 (day #118) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 20-Jun-2020 (day #148) Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 20-Jul-2020 (day #178) ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 24-Jan-2020) : 12-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : SaoPaulo Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 24-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 12-Sep-2020 (day #232) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #233) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.65, qc_inf : 0.083, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 15 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.052787 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 8.45 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 88%, Nmax = 39,321,893 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.079 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 30.1 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 21,182 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 475 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (24-Jan-2020) : 168 (10-Jul-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 145 --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 29-Nov-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 32,288 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 27-Mar-2020 (day #63) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 17-Apr-2020 (day #84) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 26-Jun-2020 (day #154) ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 24-Jan-2020) : 12-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : SaoPaulo Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 24-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 12-Sep-2020 (day #232) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #233) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.65, qc_inf : 0.082, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 16 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.24552 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 8.45 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 88%, Nmax = 39,321,893 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.066 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 56.9 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 40,906 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 917 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (24-Jan-2020) : 139 (11-Jun-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 293 --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 29-Nov-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 58,982 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 26-Mar-2020 (day #62) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 11-Apr-2020 (day #78) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 23-May-2020 (day #120) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 26-Jun-2020 (day #154) Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 01-Aug-2020 (day #190) ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 24-Jan-2020) : 12-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : SaoPaulo Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 24-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 12-Sep-2020 (day #232) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #233) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.65, qc_inf : 0.083, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 16 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : -0.1147 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 8.45 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 88%, Nmax = 39,321,893 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.079 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 69.1 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 48,385 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 1,085 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (24-Jan-2020) : 178 (20-Jul-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 342 --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 29-Nov-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 74,674 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 26-Mar-2020 (day #62) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 11-Apr-2020 (day #78) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 21-May-2020 (day #118) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 20-Jun-2020 (day #148) Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 20-Jul-2020 (day #178) ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 24-Jan-2020) : 12-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : SaoPaulo Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 24-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 12-Sep-2020 (day #232) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #233) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.65, qc_inf : 0.082, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 16 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.24552 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 8.45 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 88%, Nmax = 39,321,893 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.066 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 56.9 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 40,906 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 917 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (24-Jan-2020) : 139 (11-Jun-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 293 --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 29-Nov-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 58,982 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 26-Mar-2020 (day #62) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 11-Apr-2020 (day #78) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 23-May-2020 (day #120) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 26-Jun-2020 (day #154) Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 01-Aug-2020 (day #190) ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 24-Jan-2020) : 12-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : SaoPaulo Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 24-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 12-Sep-2020 (day #232) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #233) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.65, qc_inf : 0.081, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 16 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.32386 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 8.45 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 88%, Nmax = 39,321,893 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.053 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 47.2 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 34,757 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 779 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (24-Jan-2020) : 129 (01-Jun-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 260 --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 29-Nov-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 47,171 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 26-Mar-2020 (day #62) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 11-Apr-2020 (day #78) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 25-May-2020 (day #122) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 04-Jul-2020 (day #162) ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 27-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : SaoPaulo Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 27-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #232) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #233) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.65, qc_inf : 0.081, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 16 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.32386 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 8.45 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 88%, Nmax = 39,321,893 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.053 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 47.2 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 34,757 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 779 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (27-Jan-2020) : 129 (04-Jun-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 260 --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 02-Dec-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 47,171 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 29-Mar-2020 (day #62) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 14-Apr-2020 (day #78) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 28-May-2020 (day #122) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 07-Jul-2020 (day #162) ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 27-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : SaoPaulo Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 27-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #232) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #233) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.65, qc_inf : 0.082, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 16 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.24552 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 8.45 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 88%, Nmax = 39,321,893 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.066 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 56.9 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 40,906 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 917 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (27-Jan-2020) : 139 (14-Jun-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 293 --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 02-Dec-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 58,982 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 29-Mar-2020 (day #62) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 14-Apr-2020 (day #78) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 26-May-2020 (day #120) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 29-Jun-2020 (day #154) Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 04-Aug-2020 (day #190) ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 27-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : SaoPaulo Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 27-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #232) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #233) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.64, qc_inf : 0.082, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 16 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.36256 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 8.32 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 88%, Nmax = 39,239,423 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.066 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 47.3 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 34,061 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 764 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (27-Jan-2020) : 139 (14-Jun-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 244 --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 02-Dec-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 49,077 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 29-Mar-2020 (day #62) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 16-Apr-2020 (day #80) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 02-Jun-2020 (day #127) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 13-Jul-2020 (day #168) ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 27-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : SaoPaulo Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 27-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #232) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #233) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.64, qc_inf : 0.0825, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 16 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.34292 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 8.32 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 88%, Nmax = 39,239,423 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.073 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 52.1 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 37,021 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 830 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (27-Jan-2020) : 148 (23-Jun-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 261 --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 02-Dec-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 55,136 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 29-Mar-2020 (day #62) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 16-Apr-2020 (day #80) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 31-May-2020 (day #125) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 09-Jul-2020 (day #164) Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 17-Aug-2020 (day #203) ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (Spain day #0 : 26-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Spain Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 26-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #233) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #234) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.33%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.83, qc_inf : 0.054, tau_ref : 23, Dtau : 5 From day #140 --> qc_0 : 0.13, qc_inf : 0.1, tau_ref : 180, Dtau : 10 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.61957 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 10.79 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 91%, Nmax = 42,281,186 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.302 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 23.3 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 30,413 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 30,004 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 653 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (26-Jan-2020) : 66 (01-Apr-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 889 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (15-Mar-2020) : 17 (01-Apr-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 01-Dec-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 63,624 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 12-Mar-2020 (day #46) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 19-Mar-2020 (day #53) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 01-Apr-2020 (day #66) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 15-Apr-2020 (day #80) Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 11-Sep-2020 (day #229) --------- Day of the end of the lockdown (26-Apr-2020) : #91 Estimated number of daily infections (26-Apr-2020) : 13190 Estimated number of daily deaths (26-Apr-2020) : 274 Observed number of daily fatalities (26-Apr-2020) : 288 Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23682 Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23190 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (Spain day #0 : 26-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Spain Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 26-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #233) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #234) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.33%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.83, qc_inf : 0.054, tau_ref : 23, Dtau : 5 From day #140 --> qc_0 : 0.13, qc_inf : 0.09, tau_ref : 180, Dtau : 10 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.62033 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 10.79 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 91%, Nmax = 42,281,186 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.173 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 21.3 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 29,962 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 30,004 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 643 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (26-Jan-2020) : 66 (01-Apr-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 889 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (15-Mar-2020) : 17 (01-Apr-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 01-Dec-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 39,853 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 12-Mar-2020 (day #46) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 19-Mar-2020 (day #53) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 01-Apr-2020 (day #66) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 15-Apr-2020 (day #80) --------- Day of the end of the lockdown (26-Apr-2020) : #91 Estimated number of daily infections (26-Apr-2020) : 13190 Estimated number of daily deaths (26-Apr-2020) : 274 Observed number of daily fatalities (26-Apr-2020) : 288 Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23682 Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23190 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (Spain day #0 : 26-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Spain Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 26-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #233) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #234) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.33%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.83, qc_inf : 0.054, tau_ref : 23, Dtau : 5 From day #140 --> qc_0 : 0.13, qc_inf : 0.08, tau_ref : 180, Dtau : 10 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.62024 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 10.79 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 91%, Nmax = 42,281,186 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.043 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 20.1 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 29,612 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 30,004 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 635 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (26-Jan-2020) : 66 (01-Apr-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 889 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (15-Mar-2020) : 17 (01-Apr-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 01-Dec-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 32,751 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 12-Mar-2020 (day #46) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 19-Mar-2020 (day #53) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 01-Apr-2020 (day #66) --------- Day of the end of the lockdown (26-Apr-2020) : #91 Estimated number of daily infections (26-Apr-2020) : 13190 Estimated number of daily deaths (26-Apr-2020) : 274 Observed number of daily fatalities (26-Apr-2020) : 288 Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23682 Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23190 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (Spain day #0 : 26-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Spain Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 26-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #233) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #234) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.33%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.83, qc_inf : 0.054, tau_ref : 23, Dtau : 5 From day #140 --> qc_0 : 0.13, qc_inf : 0.09, tau_ref : 180, Dtau : 10 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.62033 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 10.79 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 91%, Nmax = 42,281,186 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.173 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 21.3 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 29,962 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 30,004 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 643 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (26-Jan-2020) : 66 (01-Apr-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 889 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (15-Mar-2020) : 17 (01-Apr-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 01-Dec-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 39,853 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 12-Mar-2020 (day #46) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 19-Mar-2020 (day #53) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 01-Apr-2020 (day #66) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 15-Apr-2020 (day #80) --------- Day of the end of the lockdown (26-Apr-2020) : #91 Estimated number of daily infections (26-Apr-2020) : 13190 Estimated number of daily deaths (26-Apr-2020) : 274 Observed number of daily fatalities (26-Apr-2020) : 288 Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23682 Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23190 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (Spain day #0 : 26-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Spain Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 26-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #233) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #234) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.33%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.83, qc_inf : 0.054, tau_ref : 23, Dtau : 5 From day #150 --> qc_0 : 0.13, qc_inf : 0.09, tau_ref : 180, Dtau : 10 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.61865 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 10.79 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 91%, Nmax = 42,281,186 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.173 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 19 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 28,525 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 30,004 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 612 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (26-Jan-2020) : 66 (01-Apr-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 889 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (15-Mar-2020) : 17 (01-Apr-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 01-Dec-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 31,255 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 12-Mar-2020 (day #46) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 19-Mar-2020 (day #53) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 01-Apr-2020 (day #66) --------- Day of the end of the lockdown (26-Apr-2020) : #91 Estimated number of daily infections (26-Apr-2020) : 13190 Estimated number of daily deaths (26-Apr-2020) : 274 Observed number of daily fatalities (26-Apr-2020) : 288 Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23682 Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23190 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (Spain day #0 : 26-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Spain Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 26-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #233) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #234) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.33%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.83, qc_inf : 0.054, tau_ref : 23, Dtau : 5 From day #150 --> qc_0 : 0.13, qc_inf : 0.09, tau_ref : 200, Dtau : 10 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.61986 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 10.79 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 91%, Nmax = 42,281,186 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.189 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 20.2 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 28,900 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 30,004 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 620 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (26-Jan-2020) : 66 (01-Apr-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 889 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (15-Mar-2020) : 17 (01-Apr-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 01-Dec-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 37,152 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 12-Mar-2020 (day #46) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 19-Mar-2020 (day #53) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 01-Apr-2020 (day #66) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 15-Apr-2020 (day #80) --------- Day of the end of the lockdown (26-Apr-2020) : #91 Estimated number of daily infections (26-Apr-2020) : 13190 Estimated number of daily deaths (26-Apr-2020) : 274 Observed number of daily fatalities (26-Apr-2020) : 288 Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23682 Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23190 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (Spain day #0 : 26-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Spain Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 26-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #233) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #234) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.33%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.83, qc_inf : 0.054, tau_ref : 23, Dtau : 5 From day #150 --> qc_0 : 0.13, qc_inf : 0.1, tau_ref : 200, Dtau : 10 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.62001 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 10.79 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 91%, Nmax = 42,281,186 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.314 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 20.9 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 28,967 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 30,004 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 622 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (26-Jan-2020) : 66 (01-Apr-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 889 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (15-Mar-2020) : 17 (01-Apr-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 01-Dec-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 49,223 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 12-Mar-2020 (day #46) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 19-Mar-2020 (day #53) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 01-Apr-2020 (day #66) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 15-Apr-2020 (day #80) Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 28-Sep-2020 (day #246) --------- Day of the end of the lockdown (26-Apr-2020) : #91 Estimated number of daily infections (26-Apr-2020) : 13190 Estimated number of daily deaths (26-Apr-2020) : 274 Observed number of daily fatalities (26-Apr-2020) : 288 Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23682 Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23190 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (Spain day #0 : 26-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Spain Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 26-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #233) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #234) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.33%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.83, qc_inf : 0.054, tau_ref : 23, Dtau : 5 From day #150 --> qc_0 : 0.13, qc_inf : 0.09, tau_ref : 200, Dtau : 20 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.61962 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 10.79 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 91%, Nmax = 42,281,186 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.261 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 20.2 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 28,798 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 30,004 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 618 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (26-Jan-2020) : 66 (01-Apr-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 889 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (15-Mar-2020) : 17 (01-Apr-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 01-Dec-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 39,389 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 12-Mar-2020 (day #46) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 19-Mar-2020 (day #53) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 01-Apr-2020 (day #66) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 15-Apr-2020 (day #80) --------- Day of the end of the lockdown (26-Apr-2020) : #91 Estimated number of daily infections (26-Apr-2020) : 13190 Estimated number of daily deaths (26-Apr-2020) : 274 Observed number of daily fatalities (26-Apr-2020) : 288 Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23682 Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23190 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (Spain day #0 : 26-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Spain Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 26-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #233) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #234) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.33%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.83, qc_inf : 0.054, tau_ref : 23, Dtau : 5 From day #150 --> qc_0 : 0.13, qc_inf : 0.09, tau_ref : 220, Dtau : 20 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.62006 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 10.79 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 91%, Nmax = 42,281,186 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.354 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 21.6 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 28,990 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 30,004 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 622 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (26-Jan-2020) : 66 (01-Apr-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 889 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (15-Mar-2020) : 17 (01-Apr-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 01-Dec-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 54,346 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 12-Mar-2020 (day #46) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 19-Mar-2020 (day #53) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 01-Apr-2020 (day #66) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 15-Apr-2020 (day #80) Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 26-Sep-2020 (day #244) --------- Day of the end of the lockdown (26-Apr-2020) : #91 Estimated number of daily infections (26-Apr-2020) : 13190 Estimated number of daily deaths (26-Apr-2020) : 274 Observed number of daily fatalities (26-Apr-2020) : 288 Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23682 Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23190 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (Spain day #0 : 26-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Spain Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 26-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #233) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #234) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.33%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.83, qc_inf : 0.054, tau_ref : 23, Dtau : 5 From day #140 --> qc_0 : 0.13, qc_inf : 0.09, tau_ref : 220, Dtau : 20 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.61048 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 10.79 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 91%, Nmax = 42,281,186 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.352 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 30.8 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 31,754 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 30,004 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 681 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (26-Jan-2020) : 66 (01-Apr-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 889 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (15-Mar-2020) : 17 (01-Apr-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 01-Dec-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 124,948 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 12-Mar-2020 (day #46) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 19-Mar-2020 (day #53) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 01-Apr-2020 (day #66) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 15-Apr-2020 (day #80) Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 05-Sep-2020 (day #223) --------- Day of the end of the lockdown (26-Apr-2020) : #91 Estimated number of daily infections (26-Apr-2020) : 13190 Estimated number of daily deaths (26-Apr-2020) : 274 Observed number of daily fatalities (26-Apr-2020) : 288 Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23682 Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23190 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (Spain day #0 : 26-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Spain Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 26-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #233) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #234) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.33%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.83, qc_inf : 0.054, tau_ref : 23, Dtau : 5 From day #145 --> qc_0 : 0.13, qc_inf : 0.09, tau_ref : 220, Dtau : 20 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.61994 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 10.79 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 91%, Nmax = 42,281,186 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.353 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 24.7 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 29,927 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 30,004 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 642 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (26-Jan-2020) : 66 (01-Apr-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 889 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (15-Mar-2020) : 17 (01-Apr-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 01-Dec-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 78,431 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 12-Mar-2020 (day #46) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 19-Mar-2020 (day #53) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 01-Apr-2020 (day #66) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 15-Apr-2020 (day #80) Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 15-Sep-2020 (day #233) --------- Day of the end of the lockdown (26-Apr-2020) : #91 Estimated number of daily infections (26-Apr-2020) : 13190 Estimated number of daily deaths (26-Apr-2020) : 274 Observed number of daily fatalities (26-Apr-2020) : 288 Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23682 Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23190 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (Spain day #0 : 26-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Spain Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 26-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #233) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #234) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.33%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.83, qc_inf : 0.054, tau_ref : 23, Dtau : 5 From day #145 --> qc_0 : 0.13, qc_inf : 0.085, tau_ref : 220, Dtau : 20 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.62006 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 10.79 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 91%, Nmax = 42,281,186 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.31 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 24.1 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 29,877 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 30,004 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 641 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (26-Jan-2020) : 66 (01-Apr-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 889 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (15-Mar-2020) : 17 (01-Apr-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 01-Dec-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 65,625 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 12-Mar-2020 (day #46) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 19-Mar-2020 (day #53) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 01-Apr-2020 (day #66) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 15-Apr-2020 (day #80) Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 16-Sep-2020 (day #234) --------- Day of the end of the lockdown (26-Apr-2020) : #91 Estimated number of daily infections (26-Apr-2020) : 13190 Estimated number of daily deaths (26-Apr-2020) : 274 Observed number of daily fatalities (26-Apr-2020) : 288 Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23682 Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23190 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (Spain day #0 : 26-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Spain Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 26-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #233) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #234) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.33%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.83, qc_inf : 0.054, tau_ref : 23, Dtau : 5 From day #145 --> qc_0 : 0.13, qc_inf : 0.082, tau_ref : 220, Dtau : 20 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.62012 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 10.79 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 91%, Nmax = 42,281,186 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.285 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 23.8 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 29,848 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 30,004 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 641 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (26-Jan-2020) : 66 (01-Apr-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 889 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (15-Mar-2020) : 17 (01-Apr-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 01-Dec-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 59,771 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 12-Mar-2020 (day #46) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 19-Mar-2020 (day #53) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 01-Apr-2020 (day #66) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 15-Apr-2020 (day #80) Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 16-Sep-2020 (day #234) --------- Day of the end of the lockdown (26-Apr-2020) : #91 Estimated number of daily infections (26-Apr-2020) : 13190 Estimated number of daily deaths (26-Apr-2020) : 274 Observed number of daily fatalities (26-Apr-2020) : 288 Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23682 Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23190 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (Spain day #0 : 26-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Spain Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 26-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #233) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #234) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.33%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.83, qc_inf : 0.054, tau_ref : 23, Dtau : 5 From day #145 --> qc_0 : 0.13, qc_inf : 0.078, tau_ref : 220, Dtau : 20 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.6202 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 10.79 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 91%, Nmax = 42,281,186 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.251 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 23.4 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 29,810 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 30,004 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 640 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (26-Jan-2020) : 66 (01-Apr-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 889 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (15-Mar-2020) : 17 (01-Apr-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 01-Dec-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 53,575 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 12-Mar-2020 (day #46) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 19-Mar-2020 (day #53) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 01-Apr-2020 (day #66) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 15-Apr-2020 (day #80) Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 16-Sep-2020 (day #234) --------- Day of the end of the lockdown (26-Apr-2020) : #91 Estimated number of daily infections (26-Apr-2020) : 13190 Estimated number of daily deaths (26-Apr-2020) : 274 Observed number of daily fatalities (26-Apr-2020) : 288 Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23682 Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23190 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (Spain day #0 : 26-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Spain Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 26-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #233) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #234) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.33%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.83, qc_inf : 0.054, tau_ref : 23, Dtau : 5 From day #145 --> qc_0 : 0.13, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 220, Dtau : 20 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.62032 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 10.79 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 91%, Nmax = 42,281,186 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.184 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 22.7 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 29,737 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 30,004 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 638 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (26-Jan-2020) : 66 (01-Apr-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 889 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (15-Mar-2020) : 17 (01-Apr-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 01-Dec-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 45,110 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 12-Mar-2020 (day #46) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 19-Mar-2020 (day #53) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 01-Apr-2020 (day #66) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 15-Apr-2020 (day #80) --------- Day of the end of the lockdown (26-Apr-2020) : #91 Estimated number of daily infections (26-Apr-2020) : 13190 Estimated number of daily deaths (26-Apr-2020) : 274 Observed number of daily fatalities (26-Apr-2020) : 288 Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23682 Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23190 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (Spain day #0 : 26-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Spain Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 26-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #233) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #234) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.33%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.83, qc_inf : 0.054, tau_ref : 23, Dtau : 5 From day #145 --> qc_0 : 0.125, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 220, Dtau : 20 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.62037 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 10.79 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 91%, Nmax = 42,281,186 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.161 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 21.2 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 29,277 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 30,004 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 628 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (26-Jan-2020) : 66 (01-Apr-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 889 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (15-Mar-2020) : 17 (01-Apr-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 01-Dec-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 38,427 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 12-Mar-2020 (day #46) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 19-Mar-2020 (day #53) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 01-Apr-2020 (day #66) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 15-Apr-2020 (day #80) --------- Day of the end of the lockdown (26-Apr-2020) : #91 Estimated number of daily infections (26-Apr-2020) : 13190 Estimated number of daily deaths (26-Apr-2020) : 274 Observed number of daily fatalities (26-Apr-2020) : 288 Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23682 Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23190 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (Spain day #0 : 26-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Spain Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 26-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #233) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #234) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.33%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.83, qc_inf : 0.054, tau_ref : 23, Dtau : 5 From day #145 --> qc_0 : 0.127, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 220, Dtau : 20 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.62046 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 10.79 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 91%, Nmax = 42,281,186 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.17 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 21.7 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 29,445 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 30,004 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 632 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (26-Jan-2020) : 66 (01-Apr-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 889 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (15-Mar-2020) : 17 (01-Apr-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 01-Dec-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 40,717 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 12-Mar-2020 (day #46) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 19-Mar-2020 (day #53) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 01-Apr-2020 (day #66) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 15-Apr-2020 (day #80) --------- Day of the end of the lockdown (26-Apr-2020) : #91 Estimated number of daily infections (26-Apr-2020) : 13190 Estimated number of daily deaths (26-Apr-2020) : 274 Observed number of daily fatalities (26-Apr-2020) : 288 Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23682 Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23190 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** exit