******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
COVID-19 simulation of the 16-Sep-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option f (France day #0 : 14-Jan-2020) : 14-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : France
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 14-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 14-Sep-2020 (day #244)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #245)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.33%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.44, qc_inf : 0.054, tau_ref : 38, Dtau : 9
From day #138 --> qc_0 : 0.09, qc_inf : 0.085, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 2
From day #180 --> qc_0 : 0.11, qc_inf : 0.11, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 1
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.89744
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 5.72
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 83%, Nmax = 55,286,713
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.43
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 10.7 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 30,821
Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 30,999
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 460
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (14-Jan-2020) : 88 (11-Apr-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 489
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (16-Mar-2020) : 26 (11-Apr-2020)
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 19-Nov-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 40,924
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 51,378
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 13-Mar-2020 (day #59)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 24-Mar-2020 (day #70)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 15-Apr-2020 (day #92)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 05-Sep-2020 (day #235)
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 13-Mar-2020 (day #59)
Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 24-Mar-2020 (day #70)
Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #85)
Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 20-Apr-2020 (day #97)
---------
Day of the end of the lockdown (11-May-2020) : #118
Estimated number of daily infections (11-May-2020) : 6811
Estimated number of daily deaths (11-May-2020) : 138
Observed number of daily fatalities (11-May-2020) : 178
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (11-May-2020) : 17005
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (11-May-2020) : 16994
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
COVID-19 simulation of the 16-Sep-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option f (France day #0 : 14-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : France
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 14-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #245)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #246)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.33%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.44, qc_inf : 0.054, tau_ref : 38, Dtau : 9
From day #138 --> qc_0 : 0.09, qc_inf : 0.085, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 2
From day #180 --> qc_0 : 0.11, qc_inf : 0.11, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 1
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.89761
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 5.72
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 83%, Nmax = 55,286,713
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.43
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 10.7 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 30,873
Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 30,999
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 461
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (14-Jan-2020) : 88 (11-Apr-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 489
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (16-Mar-2020) : 26 (11-Apr-2020)
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 19-Nov-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 40,924
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 51,378
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 13-Mar-2020 (day #59)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 24-Mar-2020 (day #70)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 15-Apr-2020 (day #92)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 05-Sep-2020 (day #235)
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 13-Mar-2020 (day #59)
Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 24-Mar-2020 (day #70)
Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #85)
Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 20-Apr-2020 (day #97)
---------
Day of the end of the lockdown (11-May-2020) : #118
Estimated number of daily infections (11-May-2020) : 6811
Estimated number of daily deaths (11-May-2020) : 138
Observed number of daily fatalities (11-May-2020) : 178
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (11-May-2020) : 17005
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (11-May-2020) : 16994
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
1.6*220

ans =

   352

outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : Italy
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.063, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6
From day #177 --> qc_0 : 0.09, qc_inf : 0.09, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2
From day #200 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.12, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 1
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95944
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.56
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 18.2 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 37,217
Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 631
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 836
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020)
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 58,482
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 58,764
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 02-May-2020 (day #112)
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 01-May-2020 (day #111)
---------
Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114
Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 20139
Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 247
Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 30469
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
{Error: <a href="matlab: opentoline('/Users/yves/CloudStation/Personnel/Divers/coronavirus/epidemy.m',1195,35)">File: epidemy.m Line: 1195 Column: 35
</a>Invalid expression. Check for missing multiplication operator, missing or unbalanced delimiters, or other syntax error. To construct matrices, use brackets
instead of parentheses.

Error in <a href="matlab:matlab.internal.language.introspective.errorDocCallback('outbreak0', '/Users/yves/CloudStation/Personnel/Divers/coronavirus/outbreak0.m', 54)" style="font-weight:bold">outbreak0</a> (<a href="matlab: opentoline('/Users/yves/CloudStation/Personnel/Divers/coronavirus/outbreak0.m',54,0)">line 54</a>)
            param_autoscan = epidemy({countries{ic}},lab,automode,nofig,noscan,nodiary,nofrr0fig,keepallfigs,display,autoscan,njmax0);
} 
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : Italy
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.063, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6
From day #177 --> qc_0 : 0.09, qc_inf : 0.09, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2
From day #200 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.09, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95944
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.225
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 17.9 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 37,216
Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 631
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 836
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020)
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 43,306
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 43,588
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88)
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88)
---------
Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114
Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 20139
Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 247
Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 30469
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : Italy
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.063, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6
From day #177 --> qc_0 : 0.09, qc_inf : 0.09, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2
From day #200 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.075, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95945
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.058
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 17.8 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 37,216
Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 631
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 836
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020)
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 40,797
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 41,079
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88)
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88)
---------
Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114
Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 20139
Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 247
Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 30469
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : Italy
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.063, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6
From day #185 --> qc_0 : 0.09, qc_inf : 0.09, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2
From day #200 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95957
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.002
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 17.4 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 37,028
Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 628
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 836
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020)
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 38,937
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 39,219
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88)
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88)
---------
Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114
Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 20139
Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 247
Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 30469
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : Italy
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.063, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6
From day #170 --> qc_0 : 0.09, qc_inf : 0.09, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2
From day #200 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.959
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.002
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 18.2 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 37,481
Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 635
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 836
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020)
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 42,031
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 42,313
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88)
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88)
---------
Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114
Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 20139
Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 247
Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 30469
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : Italy
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.063, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6
From day #170 --> qc_0 : 0.08, qc_inf : 0.08, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2
From day #200 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95955
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.002
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 17.6 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 37,166
Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 630
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 836
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020)
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 39,700
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 39,982
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88)
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88)
---------
Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114
Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 20139
Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 247
Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 30469
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : Italy
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.063, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6
From day #165 --> qc_0 : 0.08, qc_inf : 0.08, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2
From day #200 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95946
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.002
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 17.8 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 37,279
Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 632
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 836
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020)
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 40,346
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 40,628
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88)
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88)
---------
Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114
Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 20139
Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 247
Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 30469
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : Italy
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.063, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6
From day #170 --> qc_0 : 0.08, qc_inf : 0.08, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2
From day #200 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95955
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.002
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 17.6 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 37,166
Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 630
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 836
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020)
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 39,700
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 39,982
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88)
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88)
---------
Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114
Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 20139
Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 247
Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 30469
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : Italy
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.063, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6
From day #170 --> qc_0 : 0.07, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2
From day #200 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.9596
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.002
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 17.2 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 36,961
Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 626
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 836
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020)
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 38,245
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 38,527
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88)
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88)
---------
Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114
Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 20139
Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 247
Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 30469
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : Italy
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.063, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6
From day #160 --> qc_0 : 0.07, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2
From day #200 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95961
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.002
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 17.3 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 37,029
Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 628
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 836
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020)
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 38,566
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 38,848
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88)
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88)
---------
Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114
Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 20139
Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 247
Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 30469
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : Italy
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.063, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6
From day #160 --> qc_0 : 0.063, qc_inf : 0.063, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2
From day #200 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95955
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.002
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 17 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 36,863
Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 625
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 836
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020)
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 37,585
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 37,867
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88)
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88)
---------
Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114
Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 20139
Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 247
Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 30469
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : Italy
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.063, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6
From day #170 --> qc_0 : 0.08, qc_inf : 0.08, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2
From day #200 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95955
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.002
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 17.6 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 37,166
Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 630
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 836
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020)
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 39,700
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 39,982
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88)
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88)
---------
Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114
Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 20139
Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 247
Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 30469
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : Italy
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.063, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6
From day #165 --> qc_0 : 0.08, qc_inf : 0.08, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2
From day #200 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95946
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.002
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 17.8 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 37,279
Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 632
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 836
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020)
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 40,346
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 40,628
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88)
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88)
---------
Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114
Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 20139
Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 247
Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 30469
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : Italy
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.063, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6
From day #165 --> qc_0 : 0.075, qc_inf : 0.075, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2
From day #200 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.9596
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.002
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 17.5 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 37,117
Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 629
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 836
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020)
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 39,231
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 39,513
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88)
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88)
---------
Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114
Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 20139
Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 247
Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 30469
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : Italy
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.063, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6
From day #155 --> qc_0 : 0.075, qc_inf : 0.075, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2
From day #200 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95949
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.002
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 17.7 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 37,297
Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 632
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 836
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020)
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 40,093
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 40,375
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88)
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88)
---------
Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114
Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 20139
Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 247
Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 30469
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : Italy
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.063, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6
From day #145 --> qc_0 : 0.075, qc_inf : 0.075, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2
From day #200 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95917
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.002
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 18.1 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 37,575
Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 637
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 836
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020)
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 41,248
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 41,530
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88)
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88)
---------
Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114
Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 20139
Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 247
Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 30469
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : Italy
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.063, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6
From day #160 --> qc_0 : 0.075, qc_inf : 0.075, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2
From day #200 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95956
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.002
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 17.6 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 37,197
Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 630
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 836
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020)
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 39,631
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 39,913
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88)
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88)
---------
Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114
Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 20139
Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 247
Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 30469
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : Italy
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.063, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6
From day #175 --> qc_0 : 0.075, qc_inf : 0.075, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2
From day #200 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95961
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.002
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 17.3 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 37,000
Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 627
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 836
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020)
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 38,583
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 38,865
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88)
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88)
---------
Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114
Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 20139
Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 247
Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 30469
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : Italy
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.063, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6
From day #175 --> qc_0 : 0.085, qc_inf : 0.085, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2
From day #200 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95952
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.002
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 17.6 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 37,170
Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 630
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 836
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020)
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 39,865
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 40,147
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88)
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88)
---------
Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114
Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 20139
Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 247
Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 30469
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : Italy
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.063, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6
From day #165 --> qc_0 : 0.085, qc_inf : 0.085, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2
From day #200 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95908
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.002
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 18.2 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 37,488
Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 635
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 836
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020)
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 41,823
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 42,105
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88)
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #88)
---------
Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114
Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 20139
Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 247
Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 30469
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : Italy
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.061, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6
From day #165 --> qc_0 : 0.085, qc_inf : 0.085, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2
From day #200 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95149
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.002
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 15.8 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 33,293
Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 564
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 798
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020)
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 35,653
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 35,935
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 27-Mar-2020 (day #76)
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 27-Mar-2020 (day #76)
---------
Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114
Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 14322
Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 201
Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28184
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : Italy
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.062, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6
From day #165 --> qc_0 : 0.085, qc_inf : 0.085, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2
From day #200 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95847
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.002
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 16.9 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 35,278
Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 598
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 817
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020)
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 38,494
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 38,776
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 09-Apr-2020 (day #89)
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 09-Apr-2020 (day #89)
---------
Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114
Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 16998
Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 223
Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 29298
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : Italy
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.062, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6
From day #165 --> qc_0 : 0.085, qc_inf : 0.085, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2
From day #190 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95737
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.002
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 17.7 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 35,617
Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 604
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 817
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020)
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 41,443
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 41,725
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 09-Apr-2020 (day #89)
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 09-Apr-2020 (day #89)
---------
Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114
Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 16998
Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 223
Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 29298
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : Italy
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.062, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6
From day #165 --> qc_0 : 0.085, qc_inf : 0.085, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2
From day #195 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.9581
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.002
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 17.2 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 35,418
Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 600
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 817
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020)
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 39,757
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 40,039
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 09-Apr-2020 (day #89)
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 09-Apr-2020 (day #89)
---------
Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114
Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 16998
Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 223
Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 29298
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : Italy
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.062, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6
From day #175 --> qc_0 : 0.085, qc_inf : 0.085, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2
From day #195 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95853
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.002
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 16.7 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 35,116
Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 595
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 817
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020)
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 37,748
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 38,030
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 09-Apr-2020 (day #89)
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 09-Apr-2020 (day #89)
---------
Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114
Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 16998
Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 223
Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 29298
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : Italy
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.062, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6
From day #165 --> qc_0 : 0.085, qc_inf : 0.085, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2
From day #195 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.9581
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.002
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 17.2 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 35,418
Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 600
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 817
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020)
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 39,757
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 40,039
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 09-Apr-2020 (day #89)
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 09-Apr-2020 (day #89)
---------
Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114
Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 16998
Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 223
Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 29298
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : Italy
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.062, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6
From day #160 --> qc_0 : 0.085, qc_inf : 0.085, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2
From day #195 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95755
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.002
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 17.6 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 35,646
Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 604
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 817
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020)
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 41,183
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 41,465
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 09-Apr-2020 (day #89)
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 09-Apr-2020 (day #89)
---------
Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114
Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 16998
Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 223
Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 29298
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : Italy
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.062, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6
From day #160 --> qc_0 : 0.062, qc_inf : 0.075, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2
From day #195 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95855
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.002
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 16.7 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 35,154
Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 596
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 817
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020)
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 37,769
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 38,051
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 09-Apr-2020 (day #89)
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 09-Apr-2020 (day #89)
---------
Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114
Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 16998
Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 223
Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 29298
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : Italy
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.062, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6
From day #160 --> qc_0 : 0.062, qc_inf : 0.075, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2
From day #195 --> qc_0 : 0.1, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95867
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 0.965
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 16.1 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 35,010
Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 593
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 817
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020)
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 35,547
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 35,829
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
---------
Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114
Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 16998
Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 223
Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 29298
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : Italy
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.062, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6
From day #160 --> qc_0 : 0.062, qc_inf : 0.075, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2
From day #195 --> qc_0 : 0.11, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95865
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 0.984
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 16.3 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 35,073
Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 594
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 817
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020)
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 36,354
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 36,636
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 09-Apr-2020 (day #89)
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 09-Apr-2020 (day #89)
---------
Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114
Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 16998
Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 223
Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 29298
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : Italy
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.062, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6
From day #160 --> qc_0 : 0.062, qc_inf : 0.075, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2
From day #185 --> qc_0 : 0.11, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95833
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 0.984
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 16.8 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 35,337
Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 599
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 817
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020)
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 37,900
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 38,182
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 09-Apr-2020 (day #89)
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 09-Apr-2020 (day #89)
---------
Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114
Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 16998
Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 223
Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 29298
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : Italy
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.062, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6
From day #165 --> qc_0 : 0.062, qc_inf : 0.075, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2
From day #185 --> qc_0 : 0.11, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95846
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 0.984
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 16.6 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 35,237
Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 597
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 817
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020)
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 37,437
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 37,719
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 09-Apr-2020 (day #89)
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 09-Apr-2020 (day #89)
---------
Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114
Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 16998
Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 223
Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 29298
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : Italy
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.062, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6
From day #165 --> qc_0 : 0.062, qc_inf : 0.075, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2
From day #180 --> qc_0 : 0.11, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95811
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 0.984
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 17 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 35,431
Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 601
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 817
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020)
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 38,498
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 38,780
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 09-Apr-2020 (day #89)
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 09-Apr-2020 (day #89)
---------
Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114
Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 16998
Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 223
Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 29298
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : Italy
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.062, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6
From day #165 --> qc_0 : 0.062, qc_inf : 0.075, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2
From day #187 --> qc_0 : 0.11, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95852
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 0.984
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 16.5 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 35,177
Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 596
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 817
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020)
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 37,096
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 37,378
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 09-Apr-2020 (day #89)
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 09-Apr-2020 (day #89)
---------
Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114
Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 16998
Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 223
Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 29298
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : Italy
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.062, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6
From day #165 --> qc_0 : 0.064, qc_inf : 0.075, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2
From day #187 --> qc_0 : 0.11, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95852
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 0.984
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 16.6 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 35,180
Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 596
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 817
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020)
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 37,114
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 37,396
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 09-Apr-2020 (day #89)
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 09-Apr-2020 (day #89)
---------
Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114
Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 16998
Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 223
Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 29298
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : Italy
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.062, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6
From day #165 --> qc_0 : 0.064, qc_inf : 0.075, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2
From day #195 --> qc_0 : 0.11, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95864
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 0.984
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 16.3 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 35,010
Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 593
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 817
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020)
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 36,100
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 36,382
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 09-Apr-2020 (day #89)
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 09-Apr-2020 (day #89)
---------
Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114
Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 16998
Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 223
Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 29298
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (Italy day #0 : 11-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : Italy
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #248)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #249)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.062, tau_ref : 31, Dtau : 6
From day #165 --> qc_0 : 0.064, qc_inf : 0.075, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2
From day #190 --> qc_0 : 0.11, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 239, Dtau : 5
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95859
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.41
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 51,037,787
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 0.984
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 16.4 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 35,104
Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 35,633
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 595
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Jan-2020) : 77 (28-Mar-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 817
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (8-Mar-2020) : 20 (28-Mar-2020)
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 16-Nov-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 36,674
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 36,956
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 09-Apr-2020 (day #89)
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #75)
Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 09-Apr-2020 (day #89)
---------
Day of the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : #114
Estimated number of daily infections (4-May-2020) : 16998
Estimated number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 223
Observed number of daily fatalities (4-May-2020) : 195
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 29298
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (4-May-2020) : 28797
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 06-Feb-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : SaoPaulo
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 06-Feb-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #222)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #223)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 1.2, qc_inf : 0.086, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 9
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.21825
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 15.6
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 94%, Nmax = 41,741,026
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.118
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 57.6 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 37,443
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 840
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (06-Feb-2020) : 310 (12-Dec-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 554
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 12-Dec-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 76,555
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 28-Mar-2020 (day #51)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 12-Apr-2020 (day #66)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 05-Jun-2020 (day #120)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 19-Jul-2020 (day #164)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 23-Aug-2020 (day #199)
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 06-Feb-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
*********************************************************************************
Automatic single search (mode : 4) of optimal simulation parameters for SaoPaulo
*********************************************************************************
Number of iterations : 1
Number of outbreak waves : 1/1
Active waves : 1
*********************************************************************************
----- Outbreak wave number : 1 -----

Ntot_dead_ref_0 =

       62946

******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : SaoPaulo
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 06-Feb-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #222)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #223)
---------
---------
Initial simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 1.2, qc_inf : 0.086, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 9
Optimal simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.87915, qc_inf : 0.083712, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 12.0108
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.31989
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 11.429
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 91%, Nmax = 40,697,648
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.088
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 54 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 37,331
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 837
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (06-Feb-2020) : 310 (12-Dec-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 306
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 12-Dec-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 62,946
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 02-Apr-2020 (day #56)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 17-Apr-2020 (day #71)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 02-Jun-2020 (day #117)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 12-Jul-2020 (day #157)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 19-Aug-2020 (day #195)
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 06-Feb-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
*********************************************************************************
Automatic single search (mode : 4) of optimal simulation parameters for SaoPaulo
*********************************************************************************
Number of iterations : 1
Number of outbreak waves : 1/1
Active waves : 1
*********************************************************************************
----- Outbreak wave number : 1 -----

Ntot_dead_ref_0 =

       62946

******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : SaoPaulo
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 06-Feb-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #222)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #223)
---------
---------
Initial simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 1.2, qc_inf : 0.086, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 9
Optimal simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.87915, qc_inf : 0.083712, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 12.0108
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.31989
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 11.429
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 91%, Nmax = 40,697,648
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.088
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 54 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 37,331
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 837
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (06-Feb-2020) : 310 (12-Dec-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 306
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 12-Dec-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 62,946
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 02-Apr-2020 (day #56)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 17-Apr-2020 (day #71)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 02-Jun-2020 (day #117)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 12-Jul-2020 (day #157)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 19-Aug-2020 (day #195)
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 06-Feb-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
*********************************************************************************
Automatic single search (mode : 4) of optimal simulation parameters for SaoPaulo
*********************************************************************************
Number of iterations : 1
Number of outbreak waves : 1/1
Active waves : 1
*********************************************************************************
----- Outbreak wave number : 1 -----

Ntot_dead_ref_0 =

       62946

******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : SaoPaulo
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 06-Feb-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #222)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #223)
---------
---------
Initial simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 1.2, qc_inf : 0.086, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 9
Optimal simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.87915, qc_inf : 0.083712, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 12.0108
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.31989
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 11.429
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 91%, Nmax = 40,697,648
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.088
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 54 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 37,331
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 837
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (06-Feb-2020) : 310 (12-Dec-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 306
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 12-Dec-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 62,946
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 02-Apr-2020 (day #56)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 17-Apr-2020 (day #71)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 02-Jun-2020 (day #117)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 12-Jul-2020 (day #157)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 19-Aug-2020 (day #195)
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 06-Feb-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
*********************************************************************************
Automatic single search (mode : 4) of optimal simulation parameters for SaoPaulo
*********************************************************************************
Number of iterations : 1
Number of outbreak waves : 1/1
Active waves : 1
*********************************************************************************
----- Outbreak wave number : 1 -----

Ntot_dead_ref_0 =

       62946

******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : SaoPaulo
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 06-Feb-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #222)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #223)
---------
---------
Initial simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 1.2, qc_inf : 0.086, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 9
Optimal simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.87915, qc_inf : 0.083712, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 12.0108
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.31989
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 11.429
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 91%, Nmax = 40,697,648
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.088
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 54 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 37,331
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 837
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (06-Feb-2020) : 310 (12-Dec-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 306
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 12-Dec-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 62,946
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 02-Apr-2020 (day #56)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 17-Apr-2020 (day #71)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 02-Jun-2020 (day #117)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 12-Jul-2020 (day #157)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 19-Aug-2020 (day #195)
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 06-Feb-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
*********************************************************************************
Automatic single search (mode : 3) of optimal simulation parameters for SaoPaulo
*********************************************************************************
Number of iterations : 1
Number of outbreak waves : 1/1
Active waves : 1
*********************************************************************************
----- Outbreak wave number : 1 -----

Ntot_dead_ref_0 =

       62946

******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : SaoPaulo
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 06-Feb-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #222)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #223)
---------
---------
Initial simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 1.2, qc_inf : 0.086, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 9
Optimal simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.87915, qc_inf : 0.083712, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 12.0108
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.31989
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 11.429
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 91%, Nmax = 40,697,648
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.088
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 54 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 37,331
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 837
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (06-Feb-2020) : 310 (12-Dec-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 306
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 12-Dec-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 62,946
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 02-Apr-2020 (day #56)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 17-Apr-2020 (day #71)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 02-Jun-2020 (day #117)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 12-Jul-2020 (day #157)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 19-Aug-2020 (day #195)
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 06-Feb-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : SaoPaulo
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 06-Feb-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #222)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #223)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 1.2, qc_inf : 0.086, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 9
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.21825
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 15.6
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 94%, Nmax = 41,741,026
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.118
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 57.6 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 37,443
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 840
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (06-Feb-2020) : 310 (12-Dec-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 554
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 12-Dec-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 76,555
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 28-Mar-2020 (day #51)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 12-Apr-2020 (day #66)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 05-Jun-2020 (day #120)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 19-Jul-2020 (day #164)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 23-Aug-2020 (day #199)
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 06-Feb-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
*********************************************************************************
Automatic single search (mode : 3) of optimal simulation parameters for SaoPaulo
*********************************************************************************
Number of iterations : 1
Number of outbreak waves : 1/1
Active waves : 1
*********************************************************************************
----- Outbreak wave number : 1 -----

Ntot_dead_ref_0 =

       62946

******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : SaoPaulo
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 06-Feb-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #222)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #223)
---------
---------
Initial simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 1.2, qc_inf : 0.086, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 9
Optimal simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.87915, qc_inf : 0.083712, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 12.0108
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.31989
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 11.429
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 91%, Nmax = 40,697,648
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.088
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 54 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 37,331
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 837
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (06-Feb-2020) : 310 (12-Dec-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 306
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 12-Dec-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 62,946
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 02-Apr-2020 (day #56)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 17-Apr-2020 (day #71)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 02-Jun-2020 (day #117)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 12-Jul-2020 (day #157)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 19-Aug-2020 (day #195)
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 06-Feb-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
*********************************************************************************
Automatic single search (mode : 3) of optimal simulation parameters for SaoPaulo
*********************************************************************************
Number of iterations : 1
Number of outbreak waves : 1/1
Active waves : 1
*********************************************************************************
----- Outbreak wave number : 1 -----

Ntot_dead_ref_0 =

       62946

******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : SaoPaulo
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 06-Feb-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #222)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #223)
---------
---------
Initial simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 1.2, qc_inf : 0.086, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 9
Optimal simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.87915, qc_inf : 0.083712, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 12.0108
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.31989
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 11.429
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 91%, Nmax = 40,697,648
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.088
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 54 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 37,331
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 837
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (06-Feb-2020) : 310 (12-Dec-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 306
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 12-Dec-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 62,946
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 02-Apr-2020 (day #56)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 17-Apr-2020 (day #71)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 02-Jun-2020 (day #117)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 12-Jul-2020 (day #157)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 19-Aug-2020 (day #195)
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 06-Feb-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
*********************************************************************************
Automatic single search (mode : 3) of optimal simulation parameters for SaoPaulo
*********************************************************************************
Number of iterations : 1
Number of outbreak waves : 1/1
Active waves : 1
*********************************************************************************
----- Outbreak wave number : 1 -----

Ntot_dead_ref_0 =

       62946

******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : SaoPaulo
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 06-Feb-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #222)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #223)
---------
---------
Initial simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 1.2, qc_inf : 0.086, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 9
Optimal simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.87915, qc_inf : 0.083712, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 12.0108
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.31989
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 11.429
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 91%, Nmax = 40,697,648
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.088
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 54 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 37,331
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 837
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (06-Feb-2020) : 310 (12-Dec-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 306
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 12-Dec-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 62,946
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 02-Apr-2020 (day #56)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 17-Apr-2020 (day #71)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 02-Jun-2020 (day #117)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 12-Jul-2020 (day #157)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 19-Aug-2020 (day #195)
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 06-Feb-2020) : 25-Sep-2020
*********************************************************************************
Automatic single search (mode : 3) of optimal simulation parameters for SaoPaulo
*********************************************************************************
Number of iterations : 1
Number of outbreak waves : 1/1
Active waves : 1
*********************************************************************************
----- Outbreak wave number : 1 -----

Ntot_dead_ref_0 =

       56870

******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : SaoPaulo
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 06-Feb-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 25-Sep-2020 (day #232)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #233)
---------
---------
Initial simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 1.2, qc_inf : 0.086, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 9
Optimal simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.60147, qc_inf : 0.082783, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 16.87
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.34211
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.819
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 38,896,059
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.076
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 52.9 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 37,143
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 833
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (06-Feb-2020) : 165 (20-Jul-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 266
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 12-Dec-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 56,870
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 10-Apr-2020 (day #64)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 28-Apr-2020 (day #82)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 13-Jun-2020 (day #128)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 21-Jul-2020 (day #166)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 28-Aug-2020 (day #204)
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 06-Feb-2020) : 25-Sep-2020
*********************************************************************************
Automatic single search (mode : 3) of optimal simulation parameters for SaoPaulo
*********************************************************************************
Number of iterations : 1
Number of outbreak waves : 1/1
Active waves : 1
*********************************************************************************
----- Outbreak wave number : 1 -----

Ntot_dead_ref_0 =

       56870

******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : SaoPaulo
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 06-Feb-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 25-Sep-2020 (day #232)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #233)
---------
---------
Initial simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.6, qc_inf : 0.083, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 17
Optimal simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.60147, qc_inf : 0.082783, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 16.87
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.34211
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.819
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 38,896,059
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.076
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 52.9 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 37,143
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 833
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (06-Feb-2020) : 165 (20-Jul-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 266
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 12-Dec-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 56,870
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 10-Apr-2020 (day #64)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 28-Apr-2020 (day #82)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 13-Jun-2020 (day #128)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 21-Jul-2020 (day #166)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 28-Aug-2020 (day #204)
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 16-Feb-2020) : 05-Oct-2020
*********************************************************************************
Automatic single search (mode : 3) of optimal simulation parameters for SaoPaulo
*********************************************************************************
Number of iterations : 1
Number of outbreak waves : 1/1
Active waves : 1
*********************************************************************************
----- Outbreak wave number : 1 -----

Ntot_dead_ref_0 =

       56870

******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : SaoPaulo
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 16-Feb-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 05-Oct-2020 (day #232)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #233)
---------
---------
Initial simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.6, qc_inf : 0.083, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 17
Optimal simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.60147, qc_inf : 0.082783, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 16.87
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.34211
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.819
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 38,896,059
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.076
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 52.9 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 37,143
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 833
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (16-Feb-2020) : 165 (30-Jul-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 266
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 22-Dec-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 56,870
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 20-Apr-2020 (day #64)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 08-May-2020 (day #82)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 23-Jun-2020 (day #128)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 31-Jul-2020 (day #166)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 07-Sep-2020 (day #204)
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 24-Jan-2020) : 12-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : SaoPaulo
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 24-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 12-Sep-2020 (day #232)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #233)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.6, qc_inf : 0.083, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 17
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.22267
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.8
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 38,882,051
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.079
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 59.3 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 41,362
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 927
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (24-Jan-2020) : 186 (28-Jul-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 299
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 29-Nov-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 64,418
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 28-Mar-2020 (day #64)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 15-Apr-2020 (day #82)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 29-May-2020 (day #126)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 02-Jul-2020 (day #160)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 04-Aug-2020 (day #193)
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 24-Jan-2020) : 12-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : SaoPaulo
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 24-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 12-Sep-2020 (day #232)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #233)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.6, qc_inf : 0.083, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 16
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : -0.039601
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.8
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 38,882,051
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.079
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 27.4 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 19,202
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 431
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (24-Jan-2020) : 176 (18-Jul-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 134
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 29-Nov-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 29,523
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 30-Mar-2020 (day #66)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 20-Apr-2020 (day #87)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 05-Jul-2020 (day #163)
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 24-Jan-2020) : 12-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : SaoPaulo
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 24-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 12-Sep-2020 (day #232)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #233)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.8, qc_inf : 0.083, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 16
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : -916.3443
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 10.4
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 90%, Nmax = 40,311,538
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.079
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 983.6 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 685,553
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 15,371
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (24-Jan-2020) : 182 (24-Jul-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 4975
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 29-Nov-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 1,068,513
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 18-Mar-2020 (day #54)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 28-Mar-2020 (day #64)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 11-Apr-2020 (day #78)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 18-Apr-2020 (day #85)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 23-Apr-2020 (day #90)
Threshold 100000 fatalities estimated : 14-May-2020 (day #111)
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 24-Jan-2020) : 02-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : SaoPaulo
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 24-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 02-Sep-2020 (day #222)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #223)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 1.2, qc_inf : 0.083, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 16
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : -321196193.5988
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 15.6
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 94%, Nmax = 41,741,026
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.079
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 535390.8 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 363,821,011
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 8,157,422
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (24-Jan-2020) : 189 (31-Jul-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 3013639
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 29-Nov-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 626,109,729
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 08-Mar-2020 (day #44)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 13-Mar-2020 (day #49)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 20-Mar-2020 (day #56)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 22-Mar-2020 (day #58)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 23-Mar-2020 (day #59)
Threshold 100000 fatalities estimated : 27-Mar-2020 (day #63)
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 24-Jan-2020) : 02-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : SaoPaulo
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 24-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 02-Sep-2020 (day #222)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #223)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 1.2, qc_inf : 0.083, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 8
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : -1.2557
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 15.6
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 94%, Nmax = 41,741,026
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.079
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 8 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 5,717
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 128
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (24-Jan-2020) : 108 (11-May-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 35
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 29-Nov-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 8,731
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 19-Mar-2020 (day #55)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 19-Apr-2020 (day #86)
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 24-Jan-2020) : 02-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : SaoPaulo
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 24-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 02-Sep-2020 (day #222)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #223)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 1.2, qc_inf : 0.083, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 10
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : -5.7883
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 15.6
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 94%, Nmax = 41,741,026
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.079
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 124.9 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 88,735
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 1,990
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (24-Jan-2020) : 128 (31-May-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 581
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 29-Nov-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 138,676
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 13-Mar-2020 (day #49)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 24-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 17-Apr-2020 (day #84)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 05-May-2020 (day #102)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 23-May-2020 (day #120)
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 24-Jan-2020) : 02-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : SaoPaulo
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 24-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 02-Sep-2020 (day #222)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #223)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.8, qc_inf : 0.083, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 10
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : -1.7095
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 10.4
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 90%, Nmax = 40,311,538
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.079
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 2.4 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 1,701
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 38
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (24-Jan-2020) : 124 (27-May-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 11
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 29-Nov-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 2,631
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 03-Apr-2020 (day #70)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 28-Jun-2020 (day #156)
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 24-Jan-2020) : 02-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : SaoPaulo
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 24-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 02-Sep-2020 (day #222)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #223)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.9, qc_inf : 0.083, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 10
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : -1.3361
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 11.7
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 91%, Nmax = 40,788,034
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.079
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 6.8 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 4,811
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 108
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (24-Jan-2020) : 125 (28-May-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 31
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 29-Nov-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 7,464
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 25-Mar-2020 (day #61)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 30-Apr-2020 (day #97)
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 24-Jan-2020) : 02-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : SaoPaulo
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 24-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 02-Sep-2020 (day #222)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #223)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 1, qc_inf : 0.083, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 10
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : -0.52148
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 13
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 92%, Nmax = 41,169,231
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.079
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 18.4 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 13,128
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 294
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (24-Jan-2020) : 126 (29-May-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 85
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 29-Nov-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 20,422
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 20-Mar-2020 (day #56)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 09-Apr-2020 (day #76)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 26-Jul-2020 (day #184)
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 24-Jan-2020) : 02-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : SaoPaulo
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 24-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 02-Sep-2020 (day #222)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #223)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 1, qc_inf : 0.083, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 12
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : -24.5871
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 13
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 92%, Nmax = 41,169,231
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.079
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 202.3 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 142,342
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 3,192
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (24-Jan-2020) : 146 (18-Jun-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 982
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 29-Nov-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 227,140
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 15-Mar-2020 (day #51)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 26-Mar-2020 (day #62)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 16-Apr-2020 (day #83)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 28-Apr-2020 (day #95)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 09-May-2020 (day #106)
Threshold 100000 fatalities estimated : 20-Jul-2020 (day #178)
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 24-Jan-2020) : 02-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : SaoPaulo
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 24-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 02-Sep-2020 (day #222)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #223)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.7, qc_inf : 0.083, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 16
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : -13.8035
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 9.1
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 89%, Nmax = 39,698,901
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.079
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 160.8 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 110,914
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 2,487
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (24-Jan-2020) : 179 (21-Jul-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 851
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 29-Nov-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 184,885
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 22-Mar-2020 (day #58)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 05-Apr-2020 (day #72)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 30-Apr-2020 (day #97)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 16-May-2020 (day #113)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 29-May-2020 (day #126)
Threshold 100000 fatalities estimated : 20-Aug-2020 (day #209)
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 24-Jan-2020) : 12-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : SaoPaulo
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 24-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 12-Sep-2020 (day #232)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #233)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.65, qc_inf : 0.083, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 17
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : -12.6953
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 8.45
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 88%, Nmax = 39,321,893
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.079
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 158.9 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 110,533
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 2,478
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (24-Jan-2020) : 187 (29-Jul-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 809
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 29-Nov-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 172,877
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 24-Mar-2020 (day #60)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 07-Apr-2020 (day #74)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 04-May-2020 (day #101)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 20-May-2020 (day #117)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 03-Jun-2020 (day #131)
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 24-Jan-2020) : 12-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : SaoPaulo
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 24-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 12-Sep-2020 (day #232)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #233)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.65, qc_inf : 0.083, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 16
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : -0.1147
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 8.45
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 88%, Nmax = 39,321,893
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.079
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 69.1 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 48,385
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 1,085
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (24-Jan-2020) : 178 (20-Jul-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 342
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 29-Nov-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 74,674
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 26-Mar-2020 (day #62)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 11-Apr-2020 (day #78)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 21-May-2020 (day #118)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 20-Jun-2020 (day #148)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 20-Jul-2020 (day #178)
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 24-Jan-2020) : 12-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : SaoPaulo
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 24-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 12-Sep-2020 (day #232)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #233)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.65, qc_inf : 0.083, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 15
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.052787
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 8.45
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 88%, Nmax = 39,321,893
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.079
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 30.1 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 21,182
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 475
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (24-Jan-2020) : 168 (10-Jul-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 145
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 29-Nov-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 32,288
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 27-Mar-2020 (day #63)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 17-Apr-2020 (day #84)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 26-Jun-2020 (day #154)
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 24-Jan-2020) : 12-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : SaoPaulo
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 24-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 12-Sep-2020 (day #232)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #233)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.65, qc_inf : 0.082, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 16
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.24552
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 8.45
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 88%, Nmax = 39,321,893
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.066
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 56.9 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 40,906
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 917
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (24-Jan-2020) : 139 (11-Jun-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 293
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 29-Nov-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 58,982
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 26-Mar-2020 (day #62)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 11-Apr-2020 (day #78)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 23-May-2020 (day #120)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 26-Jun-2020 (day #154)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 01-Aug-2020 (day #190)
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 24-Jan-2020) : 12-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : SaoPaulo
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 24-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 12-Sep-2020 (day #232)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #233)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.65, qc_inf : 0.083, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 16
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : -0.1147
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 8.45
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 88%, Nmax = 39,321,893
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.079
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 69.1 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 48,385
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 1,085
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (24-Jan-2020) : 178 (20-Jul-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 342
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 29-Nov-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 74,674
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 26-Mar-2020 (day #62)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 11-Apr-2020 (day #78)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 21-May-2020 (day #118)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 20-Jun-2020 (day #148)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 20-Jul-2020 (day #178)
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 24-Jan-2020) : 12-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : SaoPaulo
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 24-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 12-Sep-2020 (day #232)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #233)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.65, qc_inf : 0.082, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 16
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.24552
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 8.45
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 88%, Nmax = 39,321,893
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.066
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 56.9 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 40,906
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 917
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (24-Jan-2020) : 139 (11-Jun-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 293
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 29-Nov-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 58,982
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 26-Mar-2020 (day #62)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 11-Apr-2020 (day #78)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 23-May-2020 (day #120)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 26-Jun-2020 (day #154)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 01-Aug-2020 (day #190)
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 24-Jan-2020) : 12-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : SaoPaulo
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 24-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 12-Sep-2020 (day #232)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #233)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.65, qc_inf : 0.081, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 16
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.32386
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 8.45
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 88%, Nmax = 39,321,893
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.053
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 47.2 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 34,757
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 779
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (24-Jan-2020) : 129 (01-Jun-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 260
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 29-Nov-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 47,171
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 26-Mar-2020 (day #62)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 11-Apr-2020 (day #78)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 25-May-2020 (day #122)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 04-Jul-2020 (day #162)
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 27-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : SaoPaulo
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 27-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #232)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #233)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.65, qc_inf : 0.081, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 16
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.32386
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 8.45
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 88%, Nmax = 39,321,893
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.053
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 47.2 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 34,757
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 779
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (27-Jan-2020) : 129 (04-Jun-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 260
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 02-Dec-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 47,171
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 29-Mar-2020 (day #62)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 14-Apr-2020 (day #78)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 28-May-2020 (day #122)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 07-Jul-2020 (day #162)
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 27-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : SaoPaulo
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 27-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #232)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #233)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.65, qc_inf : 0.082, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 16
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.24552
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 8.45
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 88%, Nmax = 39,321,893
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.066
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 56.9 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 40,906
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 917
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (27-Jan-2020) : 139 (14-Jun-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 293
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 02-Dec-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 58,982
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 29-Mar-2020 (day #62)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 14-Apr-2020 (day #78)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 26-May-2020 (day #120)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 29-Jun-2020 (day #154)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 04-Aug-2020 (day #190)
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 27-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : SaoPaulo
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 27-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #232)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #233)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.64, qc_inf : 0.082, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 16
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.36256
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 8.32
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 88%, Nmax = 39,239,423
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.066
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 47.3 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 34,061
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 764
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (27-Jan-2020) : 139 (14-Jun-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 244
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 02-Dec-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 49,077
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 29-Mar-2020 (day #62)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 16-Apr-2020 (day #80)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 02-Jun-2020 (day #127)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 13-Jul-2020 (day #168)
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 27-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : SaoPaulo
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 27-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #232)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #233)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.64, qc_inf : 0.0825, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 16
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.34292
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 8.32
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 88%, Nmax = 39,239,423
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.073
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 52.1 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 37,021
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 32,963
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 830
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (27-Jan-2020) : 148 (23-Jun-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 261
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 02-Dec-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 55,136
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 29-Mar-2020 (day #62)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 16-Apr-2020 (day #80)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 31-May-2020 (day #125)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 09-Jul-2020 (day #164)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 17-Aug-2020 (day #203)
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (Spain day #0 : 26-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : Spain
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 26-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #233)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #234)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.33%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.83, qc_inf : 0.054, tau_ref : 23, Dtau : 5
From day #140 --> qc_0 : 0.13, qc_inf : 0.1, tau_ref : 180, Dtau : 10
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.61957
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 10.79
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 91%, Nmax = 42,281,186
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.302
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 23.3 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 30,413
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 30,004
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 653
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (26-Jan-2020) : 66 (01-Apr-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 889
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (15-Mar-2020) : 17 (01-Apr-2020)
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 01-Dec-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 63,624
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 12-Mar-2020 (day #46)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 19-Mar-2020 (day #53)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 01-Apr-2020 (day #66)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 15-Apr-2020 (day #80)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 11-Sep-2020 (day #229)
---------
Day of the end of the lockdown (26-Apr-2020) : #91
Estimated number of daily infections (26-Apr-2020) : 13190
Estimated number of daily deaths (26-Apr-2020) : 274
Observed number of daily fatalities (26-Apr-2020) : 288
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23682
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23190
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (Spain day #0 : 26-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : Spain
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 26-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #233)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #234)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.33%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.83, qc_inf : 0.054, tau_ref : 23, Dtau : 5
From day #140 --> qc_0 : 0.13, qc_inf : 0.09, tau_ref : 180, Dtau : 10
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.62033
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 10.79
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 91%, Nmax = 42,281,186
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.173
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 21.3 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 29,962
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 30,004
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 643
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (26-Jan-2020) : 66 (01-Apr-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 889
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (15-Mar-2020) : 17 (01-Apr-2020)
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 01-Dec-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 39,853
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 12-Mar-2020 (day #46)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 19-Mar-2020 (day #53)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 01-Apr-2020 (day #66)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 15-Apr-2020 (day #80)
---------
Day of the end of the lockdown (26-Apr-2020) : #91
Estimated number of daily infections (26-Apr-2020) : 13190
Estimated number of daily deaths (26-Apr-2020) : 274
Observed number of daily fatalities (26-Apr-2020) : 288
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23682
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23190
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (Spain day #0 : 26-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : Spain
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 26-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #233)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #234)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.33%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.83, qc_inf : 0.054, tau_ref : 23, Dtau : 5
From day #140 --> qc_0 : 0.13, qc_inf : 0.08, tau_ref : 180, Dtau : 10
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.62024
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 10.79
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 91%, Nmax = 42,281,186
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.043
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 20.1 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 29,612
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 30,004
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 635
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (26-Jan-2020) : 66 (01-Apr-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 889
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (15-Mar-2020) : 17 (01-Apr-2020)
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 01-Dec-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 32,751
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 12-Mar-2020 (day #46)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 19-Mar-2020 (day #53)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 01-Apr-2020 (day #66)
---------
Day of the end of the lockdown (26-Apr-2020) : #91
Estimated number of daily infections (26-Apr-2020) : 13190
Estimated number of daily deaths (26-Apr-2020) : 274
Observed number of daily fatalities (26-Apr-2020) : 288
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23682
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23190
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (Spain day #0 : 26-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : Spain
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 26-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #233)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #234)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.33%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.83, qc_inf : 0.054, tau_ref : 23, Dtau : 5
From day #140 --> qc_0 : 0.13, qc_inf : 0.09, tau_ref : 180, Dtau : 10
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.62033
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 10.79
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 91%, Nmax = 42,281,186
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.173
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 21.3 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 29,962
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 30,004
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 643
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (26-Jan-2020) : 66 (01-Apr-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 889
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (15-Mar-2020) : 17 (01-Apr-2020)
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 01-Dec-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 39,853
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 12-Mar-2020 (day #46)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 19-Mar-2020 (day #53)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 01-Apr-2020 (day #66)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 15-Apr-2020 (day #80)
---------
Day of the end of the lockdown (26-Apr-2020) : #91
Estimated number of daily infections (26-Apr-2020) : 13190
Estimated number of daily deaths (26-Apr-2020) : 274
Observed number of daily fatalities (26-Apr-2020) : 288
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23682
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23190
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (Spain day #0 : 26-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : Spain
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 26-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #233)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #234)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.33%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.83, qc_inf : 0.054, tau_ref : 23, Dtau : 5
From day #150 --> qc_0 : 0.13, qc_inf : 0.09, tau_ref : 180, Dtau : 10
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.61865
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 10.79
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 91%, Nmax = 42,281,186
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.173
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 19 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 28,525
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 30,004
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 612
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (26-Jan-2020) : 66 (01-Apr-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 889
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (15-Mar-2020) : 17 (01-Apr-2020)
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 01-Dec-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 31,255
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 12-Mar-2020 (day #46)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 19-Mar-2020 (day #53)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 01-Apr-2020 (day #66)
---------
Day of the end of the lockdown (26-Apr-2020) : #91
Estimated number of daily infections (26-Apr-2020) : 13190
Estimated number of daily deaths (26-Apr-2020) : 274
Observed number of daily fatalities (26-Apr-2020) : 288
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23682
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23190
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************

outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (Spain day #0 : 26-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : Spain
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 26-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #233)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #234)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.33%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.83, qc_inf : 0.054, tau_ref : 23, Dtau : 5
From day #150 --> qc_0 : 0.13, qc_inf : 0.09, tau_ref : 200, Dtau : 10
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.61986
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 10.79
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 91%, Nmax = 42,281,186
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.189
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 20.2 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 28,900
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 30,004
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 620
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (26-Jan-2020) : 66 (01-Apr-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 889
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (15-Mar-2020) : 17 (01-Apr-2020)
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 01-Dec-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 37,152
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 12-Mar-2020 (day #46)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 19-Mar-2020 (day #53)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 01-Apr-2020 (day #66)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 15-Apr-2020 (day #80)
---------
Day of the end of the lockdown (26-Apr-2020) : #91
Estimated number of daily infections (26-Apr-2020) : 13190
Estimated number of daily deaths (26-Apr-2020) : 274
Observed number of daily fatalities (26-Apr-2020) : 288
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23682
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23190
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (Spain day #0 : 26-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : Spain
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 26-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #233)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #234)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.33%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.83, qc_inf : 0.054, tau_ref : 23, Dtau : 5
From day #150 --> qc_0 : 0.13, qc_inf : 0.1, tau_ref : 200, Dtau : 10
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.62001
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 10.79
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 91%, Nmax = 42,281,186
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.314
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 20.9 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 28,967
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 30,004
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 622
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (26-Jan-2020) : 66 (01-Apr-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 889
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (15-Mar-2020) : 17 (01-Apr-2020)
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 01-Dec-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 49,223
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 12-Mar-2020 (day #46)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 19-Mar-2020 (day #53)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 01-Apr-2020 (day #66)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 15-Apr-2020 (day #80)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 28-Sep-2020 (day #246)
---------
Day of the end of the lockdown (26-Apr-2020) : #91
Estimated number of daily infections (26-Apr-2020) : 13190
Estimated number of daily deaths (26-Apr-2020) : 274
Observed number of daily fatalities (26-Apr-2020) : 288
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23682
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23190
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (Spain day #0 : 26-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : Spain
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 26-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #233)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #234)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.33%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.83, qc_inf : 0.054, tau_ref : 23, Dtau : 5
From day #150 --> qc_0 : 0.13, qc_inf : 0.09, tau_ref : 200, Dtau : 20
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.61962
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 10.79
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 91%, Nmax = 42,281,186
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.261
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 20.2 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 28,798
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 30,004
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 618
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (26-Jan-2020) : 66 (01-Apr-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 889
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (15-Mar-2020) : 17 (01-Apr-2020)
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 01-Dec-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 39,389
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 12-Mar-2020 (day #46)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 19-Mar-2020 (day #53)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 01-Apr-2020 (day #66)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 15-Apr-2020 (day #80)
---------
Day of the end of the lockdown (26-Apr-2020) : #91
Estimated number of daily infections (26-Apr-2020) : 13190
Estimated number of daily deaths (26-Apr-2020) : 274
Observed number of daily fatalities (26-Apr-2020) : 288
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23682
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23190
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (Spain day #0 : 26-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : Spain
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 26-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #233)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #234)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.33%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.83, qc_inf : 0.054, tau_ref : 23, Dtau : 5
From day #150 --> qc_0 : 0.13, qc_inf : 0.09, tau_ref : 220, Dtau : 20
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.62006
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 10.79
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 91%, Nmax = 42,281,186
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.354
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 21.6 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 28,990
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 30,004
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 622
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (26-Jan-2020) : 66 (01-Apr-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 889
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (15-Mar-2020) : 17 (01-Apr-2020)
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 01-Dec-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 54,346
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 12-Mar-2020 (day #46)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 19-Mar-2020 (day #53)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 01-Apr-2020 (day #66)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 15-Apr-2020 (day #80)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 26-Sep-2020 (day #244)
---------
Day of the end of the lockdown (26-Apr-2020) : #91
Estimated number of daily infections (26-Apr-2020) : 13190
Estimated number of daily deaths (26-Apr-2020) : 274
Observed number of daily fatalities (26-Apr-2020) : 288
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23682
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23190
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (Spain day #0 : 26-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : Spain
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 26-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #233)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #234)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.33%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.83, qc_inf : 0.054, tau_ref : 23, Dtau : 5
From day #140 --> qc_0 : 0.13, qc_inf : 0.09, tau_ref : 220, Dtau : 20
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.61048
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 10.79
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 91%, Nmax = 42,281,186
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.352
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 30.8 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 31,754
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 30,004
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 681
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (26-Jan-2020) : 66 (01-Apr-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 889
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (15-Mar-2020) : 17 (01-Apr-2020)
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 01-Dec-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 124,948
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 12-Mar-2020 (day #46)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 19-Mar-2020 (day #53)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 01-Apr-2020 (day #66)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 15-Apr-2020 (day #80)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 05-Sep-2020 (day #223)
---------
Day of the end of the lockdown (26-Apr-2020) : #91
Estimated number of daily infections (26-Apr-2020) : 13190
Estimated number of daily deaths (26-Apr-2020) : 274
Observed number of daily fatalities (26-Apr-2020) : 288
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23682
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23190
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (Spain day #0 : 26-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : Spain
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 26-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #233)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #234)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.33%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.83, qc_inf : 0.054, tau_ref : 23, Dtau : 5
From day #145 --> qc_0 : 0.13, qc_inf : 0.09, tau_ref : 220, Dtau : 20
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.61994
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 10.79
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 91%, Nmax = 42,281,186
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.353
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 24.7 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 29,927
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 30,004
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 642
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (26-Jan-2020) : 66 (01-Apr-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 889
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (15-Mar-2020) : 17 (01-Apr-2020)
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 01-Dec-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 78,431
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 12-Mar-2020 (day #46)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 19-Mar-2020 (day #53)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 01-Apr-2020 (day #66)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 15-Apr-2020 (day #80)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 15-Sep-2020 (day #233)
---------
Day of the end of the lockdown (26-Apr-2020) : #91
Estimated number of daily infections (26-Apr-2020) : 13190
Estimated number of daily deaths (26-Apr-2020) : 274
Observed number of daily fatalities (26-Apr-2020) : 288
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23682
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23190
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (Spain day #0 : 26-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : Spain
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 26-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #233)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #234)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.33%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.83, qc_inf : 0.054, tau_ref : 23, Dtau : 5
From day #145 --> qc_0 : 0.13, qc_inf : 0.085, tau_ref : 220, Dtau : 20
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.62006
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 10.79
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 91%, Nmax = 42,281,186
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.31
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 24.1 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 29,877
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 30,004
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 641
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (26-Jan-2020) : 66 (01-Apr-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 889
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (15-Mar-2020) : 17 (01-Apr-2020)
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 01-Dec-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 65,625
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 12-Mar-2020 (day #46)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 19-Mar-2020 (day #53)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 01-Apr-2020 (day #66)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 15-Apr-2020 (day #80)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 16-Sep-2020 (day #234)
---------
Day of the end of the lockdown (26-Apr-2020) : #91
Estimated number of daily infections (26-Apr-2020) : 13190
Estimated number of daily deaths (26-Apr-2020) : 274
Observed number of daily fatalities (26-Apr-2020) : 288
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23682
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23190
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outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (Spain day #0 : 26-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
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Country : Spain
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 26-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #233)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #234)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.33%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.83, qc_inf : 0.054, tau_ref : 23, Dtau : 5
From day #145 --> qc_0 : 0.13, qc_inf : 0.082, tau_ref : 220, Dtau : 20
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.62012
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 10.79
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 91%, Nmax = 42,281,186
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.285
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 23.8 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 29,848
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 30,004
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 641
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (26-Jan-2020) : 66 (01-Apr-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 889
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (15-Mar-2020) : 17 (01-Apr-2020)
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 01-Dec-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 59,771
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 12-Mar-2020 (day #46)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 19-Mar-2020 (day #53)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 01-Apr-2020 (day #66)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 15-Apr-2020 (day #80)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 16-Sep-2020 (day #234)
---------
Day of the end of the lockdown (26-Apr-2020) : #91
Estimated number of daily infections (26-Apr-2020) : 13190
Estimated number of daily deaths (26-Apr-2020) : 274
Observed number of daily fatalities (26-Apr-2020) : 288
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23682
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23190
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outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (Spain day #0 : 26-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : Spain
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 26-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #233)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #234)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.33%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.83, qc_inf : 0.054, tau_ref : 23, Dtau : 5
From day #145 --> qc_0 : 0.13, qc_inf : 0.078, tau_ref : 220, Dtau : 20
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.6202
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 10.79
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 91%, Nmax = 42,281,186
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.251
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 23.4 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 29,810
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 30,004
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 640
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (26-Jan-2020) : 66 (01-Apr-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 889
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (15-Mar-2020) : 17 (01-Apr-2020)
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 01-Dec-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 53,575
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 12-Mar-2020 (day #46)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 19-Mar-2020 (day #53)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 01-Apr-2020 (day #66)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 15-Apr-2020 (day #80)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 16-Sep-2020 (day #234)
---------
Day of the end of the lockdown (26-Apr-2020) : #91
Estimated number of daily infections (26-Apr-2020) : 13190
Estimated number of daily deaths (26-Apr-2020) : 274
Observed number of daily fatalities (26-Apr-2020) : 288
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23682
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23190
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outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (Spain day #0 : 26-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
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Country : Spain
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 26-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #233)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #234)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.33%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.83, qc_inf : 0.054, tau_ref : 23, Dtau : 5
From day #145 --> qc_0 : 0.13, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 220, Dtau : 20
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.62032
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 10.79
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 91%, Nmax = 42,281,186
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.184
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 22.7 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 29,737
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 30,004
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 638
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (26-Jan-2020) : 66 (01-Apr-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 889
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (15-Mar-2020) : 17 (01-Apr-2020)
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 01-Dec-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 45,110
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 12-Mar-2020 (day #46)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 19-Mar-2020 (day #53)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 01-Apr-2020 (day #66)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 15-Apr-2020 (day #80)
---------
Day of the end of the lockdown (26-Apr-2020) : #91
Estimated number of daily infections (26-Apr-2020) : 13190
Estimated number of daily deaths (26-Apr-2020) : 274
Observed number of daily fatalities (26-Apr-2020) : 288
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23682
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23190
******************************************************************************************
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outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (Spain day #0 : 26-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : Spain
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 26-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #233)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #234)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.33%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.83, qc_inf : 0.054, tau_ref : 23, Dtau : 5
From day #145 --> qc_0 : 0.125, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 220, Dtau : 20
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.62037
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 10.79
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 91%, Nmax = 42,281,186
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.161
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 21.2 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 29,277
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 30,004
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 628
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (26-Jan-2020) : 66 (01-Apr-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 889
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (15-Mar-2020) : 17 (01-Apr-2020)
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 01-Dec-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 38,427
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 12-Mar-2020 (day #46)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 19-Mar-2020 (day #53)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 01-Apr-2020 (day #66)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 15-Apr-2020 (day #80)
---------
Day of the end of the lockdown (26-Apr-2020) : #91
Estimated number of daily infections (26-Apr-2020) : 13190
Estimated number of daily deaths (26-Apr-2020) : 274
Observed number of daily fatalities (26-Apr-2020) : 288
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23682
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23190
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (Spain day #0 : 26-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : Spain
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 26-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #233)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #234)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.33%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.83, qc_inf : 0.054, tau_ref : 23, Dtau : 5
From day #145 --> qc_0 : 0.127, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 220, Dtau : 20
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.62046
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 10.79
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 91%, Nmax = 42,281,186
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.17
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 21.7 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 29,445
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 30,004
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 632
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (26-Jan-2020) : 66 (01-Apr-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 889
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (15-Mar-2020) : 17 (01-Apr-2020)
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 01-Dec-2020
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 40,717
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 12-Mar-2020 (day #46)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 19-Mar-2020 (day #53)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 01-Apr-2020 (day #66)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 15-Apr-2020 (day #80)
---------
Day of the end of the lockdown (26-Apr-2020) : #91
Estimated number of daily infections (26-Apr-2020) : 13190
Estimated number of daily deaths (26-Apr-2020) : 274
Observed number of daily fatalities (26-Apr-2020) : 288
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23682
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23190
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exit