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COVID-19 simulation of the 13-Jan-2021, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option f (France day #0 (tau_f = 20 days) : 24-Jan-2020) : 12-Jan-2021
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Country : France
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 24-Jan-2020 (day #0)
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---> Last available day in database : 12-Jan-2021 (day #354)
---> Today : 13-Jan-2021 (day #355)
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Manual parameter determination.
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Simulations parameters (infection fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.33%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.44, qc_inf : 0.055, tau_ref : 39, Dtau : 7
From day #120 --> qc_0 : 0.0833, qc_inf : 0.08, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 2
From day #195 --> qc_0 : 0.11, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 240, Dtau : 4
From day #245 --> qc_0 : 0.114, qc_inf : 0.067, tau_ref : 280, Dtau : 2
From day #310 --> qc_0 : 0.085, qc_inf : 0.09, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 1
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Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.79045
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Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 5.28
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 81%, Nmax = 54,310,606
Effective reproduction number (R) : 1.08
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 22.8 (%)
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Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 66,602
Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 68,802
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Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 994
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Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (24-Jan-2020) : 74 (07-Apr-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 544
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (16-Mar-2020) : 22 (07-Apr-2020)
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Estimated duration of the outbreak : 390 days until 17-Feb-2021
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Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #390) (without offset) : 56,025
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #390) (with offset) : 77,708
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Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 12-Mar-2020 (day #48)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 22-Mar-2020 (day #58)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Apr-2020 (day #78)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 01-Jul-2020 (day #159)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 14-Nov-2020 (day #295)
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Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 12-Mar-2020 (day #48)
Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 22-Mar-2020 (day #58)
Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 06-Apr-2020 (day #73)
Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 17-Apr-2020 (day #84)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 14-Jun-2020 (day #142)
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Day of the end of the first lockdown (11-May-2020) : #108
Estimated number of daily infections (11-May-2020) : 10326
Estimated number of daily deaths (11-May-2020) : 113
Observed number of daily fatalities (11-May-2020) : 178
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (11-May-2020) : 18079
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (11-May-2020) : 16994
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