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COVID-19 simulation of the 13-Aug-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option f (France day #0 : 14-Jan-2020) : 12-Aug-2020
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Country : France
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 14-Jan-2020 (day #0)
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---> Last available day in database : 12-Aug-2020 (day #211)
---> Today : 13-Aug-2020 (day #212)
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Manual parameter determination.
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Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.37%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.44, qc_inf : 0.055, tau_ref : 38, Dtau : 8
From day #128 --> qc_0 : 0.09, qc_inf : 0.09, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 2
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Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.92078
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Estimated initial basic reproduction number (R0) : 5.72
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 83%, Nmax = 55,286,713
Actual estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 1.17
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 8.5 (%)
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Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 30,480
Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 30,371
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Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 455
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Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (14-Jan-2020) : 85 (08-Apr-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 496
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (16-Mar-2020) : 23 (08-Apr-2020)
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Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 19-Nov-2020
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Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (without offset) : 25,704
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) (with offset) : 36,135
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Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 13-Mar-2020 (day #59)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 23-Mar-2020 (day #69)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 14-Apr-2020 (day #91)
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Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 13-Mar-2020 (day #59)
Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 23-Mar-2020 (day #69)
Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 07-Apr-2020 (day #84)
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Day of the end of the lockdown (11-May-2020) : #118
Estimated number of daily infections (11-May-2020) : 5751
Estimated number of daily deaths (11-May-2020) : 123
Observed number of daily fatalities (11-May-2020) : 178
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (11-May-2020) : 17096
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (11-May-2020) : 16994
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