****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** COVID-19 simulation of the 27-Sep-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr) ---> Data last day, option f (Florida day #0 : 3-Feb-2020) : 26-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Florida Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 3-Feb-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 26-Sep-2020 (day #236) ---> Today : 27-Sep-2020 (day #237) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.28%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.7, qc_inf : 0.077, tau_ref : 12, Dtau : 8 From day #120 --> qc_0 : 0.13, qc_inf : 0.065, tau_ref : 155, Dtau : 10 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.46168 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 9.1 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 89%, Nmax = 28,020,659 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 0.845 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 3.7 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 3,010 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 3,130 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 96 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (3-Feb-2020) : 78 (21-Apr-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 10 --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 09-Dec-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 3,349 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 09-Apr-2020 (day #66) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 21-Jul-2020 (day #169) ****************************************************************************************** ******************************************************************************************