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COVID-19 simulation of the 24-Nov-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option f (Florida day #0 : 3-Feb-2020) : 23-Nov-2020
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Country : Florida
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 3-Feb-2020 (day #0)
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---> Last available day in database : 23-Nov-2020 (day #294)
---> Today : 24-Nov-2020 (day #295)
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Manual parameter determination.
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Simulations parameters (infection fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.28%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.7, qc_inf : 0.077, tau_ref : 12, Dtau : 8
From day #120 --> qc_0 : 0.133, qc_inf : 0.065, tau_ref : 155, Dtau : 10
From day #205 --> qc_0 : 0.08, qc_inf : 0.08, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 1
From day #240 --> qc_0 : 0.1, qc_inf : 0.1, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 1
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Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.34679
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Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 8.4
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 88%, Nmax = 27,732,381
Effective reproduction number (R) : 1.2
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 6.8 (%)
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Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 4,450
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 4,182
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Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 141
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Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (3-Feb-2020) : 78 (21-Apr-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 10
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Estimated duration of the outbreak : 370 days until 07-Feb-2021
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Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #370) : 13,664
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Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 09-Apr-2020 (day #66)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 20-Jul-2020 (day #168)
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