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COVID-19 simulation of the 24-Nov-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option f (California day #0 : 07-Feb-2020) : 23-Nov-2020
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Country : California
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 07-Feb-2020 (day #0)
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---> Last available day in database : 23-Nov-2020 (day #290)
---> Today : 24-Nov-2020 (day #291)
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Manual parameter determination.
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Simulations parameters (infection fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.28%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.75, qc_inf : 0.088, tau_ref : 8, Dtau : 7
From day #90 --> qc_0 : 0.095, qc_inf : 0.075, tau_ref : 160, Dtau : 10
From day #245 --> qc_0 : 0.1, qc_inf : 0.1, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 1
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Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.32192
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Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 9
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 89%, Nmax = 35,120,000
Effective reproduction number (R) : 1.2
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 2.6 (%)
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Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 2,338
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 2,270
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Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 59
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Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (07-Feb-2020) : 191 (16-Aug-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 19
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Estimated duration of the outbreak : 370 days until 11-Feb-2021
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Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #370) : 6,000
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Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 29-Apr-2020 (day #82)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 07-Aug-2020 (day #182)
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