****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** COVID-19 simulation of the 16-Sep-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr) ---> Data last day, option f (California day #0 : 07-Feb-2020) : 15-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : California Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 07-Feb-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #221) ---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #222) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.28%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.75, qc_inf : 0.088, tau_ref : 8, Dtau : 7 From day #90 --> qc_0 : 0.095, qc_inf : 0.075, tau_ref : 160, Dtau : 10 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.35958 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 9.75 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 90%, Nmax = 35,457,692 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 0.976 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 1.8 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 1,669 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 1,708 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 42 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (07-Feb-2020) : 191 (16-Aug-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 19 --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 13-Dec-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 2,369 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 29-Apr-2020 (day #82) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 07-Aug-2020 (day #182) ****************************************************************************************** ******************************************************************************************