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COVID-19 simulation of the 13-Jan-2021, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option f (California day #0 (tau_f = 30 days) : 07-Feb-2020) : 12-Jan-2021
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Country : California
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 07-Feb-2020 (day #0)
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---> Last available day in database : 12-Jan-2021 (day #340)
---> Today : 13-Jan-2021 (day #341)
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Manual parameter determination.
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Simulations parameters (infection fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.28%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.75, qc_inf : 0.088, tau_ref : 8, Dtau : 7
From day #90 --> qc_0 : 0.095, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 170, Dtau : 5
From day #251 --> qc_0 : 0.108, qc_inf : 0.06, tau_ref : 317, Dtau : 1
From day #326 --> qc_0 : 0.0833, qc_inf : 0.0833, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 1
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Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.29657
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Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 9
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 89%, Nmax = 35,120,000
Effective reproduction number (R) : 1
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 4.4 (%)
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Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 3,519
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 3,396
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Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 89
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Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (07-Feb-2020) : 196 (21-Aug-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 25
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Estimated duration of the outbreak : 390 days until 03-Mar-2021
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Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #390) : 5,627
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Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 29-Apr-2020 (day #82)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 05-Aug-2020 (day #180)
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