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COVID-19 simulation of the 01-Aug-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option f (California) : 01-Aug-2020
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Country : California
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 08-Feb-2020 (day #0)
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---> Last available day in database : 01-Aug-2020 (day #175)
---> Today : 01-Aug-2020 (day #176)
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Manual parameter determination.
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Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.28%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.75, qc_inf : 0.088, tau_ref : 8, Dtau : 7
From day #90 --> qc_0 : 0.095, qc_inf : 0.095, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 10
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Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.37631
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Estimated initial basic reproduction number (R0) : 9.75
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 90%, Nmax = 35,457,692
Actual estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 1.235
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 1.5 (%)
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Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 885
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 863
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Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 22
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Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (08-Feb-2020) : 310 (14-Dec-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 316
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Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 14-Dec-2020
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Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 15,163
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Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 30-Apr-2020 (day #82)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 06-Aug-2020 (day #180)
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COVID-19 simulation of the 01-Aug-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option f (California) : 31-Jul-2020
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Country : California
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 07-Feb-2020 (day #0)
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---> Last available day in database : 31-Jul-2020 (day #175)
---> Today : 01-Aug-2020 (day #176)
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Manual parameter determination.
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Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.28%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.75, qc_inf : 0.088, tau_ref : 8, Dtau : 7
From day #90 --> qc_0 : 0.095, qc_inf : 0.095, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 10
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Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.37631
---------
Estimated initial basic reproduction number (R0) : 9.75
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 90%, Nmax = 35,457,692
Actual estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 1.235
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 1.5 (%)
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Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 885
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 863
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 22
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Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (07-Feb-2020) : 310 (13-Dec-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 316
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Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 13-Dec-2020
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Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 15,163
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Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 29-Apr-2020 (day #82)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 05-Aug-2020 (day #180)
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