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COVID-19 simulation of the 30-Oct-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option f (Brazil day #0 : 28-Jan-2020) : 29-Oct-2020
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Country : Brazil
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 28-Jan-2020 (day #0)
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---> Last available day in database : 29-Oct-2020 (day #275)
---> Today : 30-Oct-2020 (day #276)
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Manual parameter determination.
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Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.6665, qc_inf : 0.0816, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 17
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Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.5011
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Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.998
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 184,618,405
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 0.979
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 42.1 (%)
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Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 150,077
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 158,969
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Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 711
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Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (28-Jan-2020) : 141 (17-Jun-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 899
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Estimated duration of the outbreak : 340 days until 02-Jan-2021
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Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #340) : 188,712
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Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 27-Mar-2020 (day #59)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 10-Apr-2020 (day #73)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 04-May-2020 (day #97)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 18-May-2020 (day #111)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 30-May-2020 (day #123)
Threshold 100000 fatalities estimated : 20-Aug-2020 (day #205)
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