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COVID-19 simulation of the 27-Sep-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option f (Brazil day #0 : 28-Jan-2020) : 26-Sep-2020
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Country : Brazil
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 28-Jan-2020 (day #0)
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---> Last available day in database : 26-Sep-2020 (day #242)
---> Today : 27-Sep-2020 (day #243)
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Manual parameter determination.
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Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.6665, qc_inf : 0.0816, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 17
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Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.53934
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Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 8.665
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 88%, Nmax = 186,647,758
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.061
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 36.9 (%)
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Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 127,634
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 141,406
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Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 605
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Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (28-Jan-2020) : 141 (17-Jun-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 899
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Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 03-Dec-2020
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Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 171,742
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Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 27-Mar-2020 (day #59)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 10-Apr-2020 (day #73)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 04-May-2020 (day #97)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 18-May-2020 (day #111)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 30-May-2020 (day #123)
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