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COVID-19 simulation of the 13-Jan-2021, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option f (Brazil day #0 (tau_f = 30 days) : 27-Jan-2020) : 12-Jan-2021
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Country : Brazil
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 27-Jan-2020 (day #0)
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---> Last available day in database : 12-Jan-2021 (day #351)
---> Today : 13-Jan-2021 (day #352)
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Manual parameter determination.
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Simulations parameters (infection fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.6, qc_inf : 0.0805, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 19
From day #275 --> qc_0 : 0.095, qc_inf : 0.0833, tau_ref : 319, Dtau : 10
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Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.46815
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Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.2
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 86%, Nmax = 181,694,444
Effective reproduction number (R) : 1.005
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 62.1 (%)
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Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 211,146
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 204,690
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Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 1,001
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Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (27-Jan-2020) : 142 (17-Jun-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 1014
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Estimated duration of the outbreak : 390 days until 20-Feb-2021
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Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #390) : 260,983
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Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 28-Mar-2020 (day #61)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 11-Apr-2020 (day #75)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 06-May-2020 (day #100)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 19-May-2020 (day #113)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 30-May-2020 (day #124)
Threshold 100000 fatalities estimated : 11-Aug-2020 (day #197)
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