****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** COVID-19 simulation of the 01-Aug-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr) ---> Data last day, option f (Brazil) : 03-Aug-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Brazil Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 04-Feb-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 03-Aug-2020 (day #181) ---> Today : 01-Aug-2020 (day #182) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.82, qc_inf : 0.084, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 14 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.76204 --------- Estimated initial basic reproduction number (R0) : 10.66 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 91%, Nmax = 191,206,379 Actual estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 1.092 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 31.6 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 94,090 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 92,475 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 446 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (04-Feb-2020) : 310 (10-Dec-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 1312 --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 10-Dec-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 246,656 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 30-Mar-2020 (day #55) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 11-Apr-2020 (day #67) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 04-May-2020 (day #90) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 18-May-2020 (day #104) Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 30-May-2020 (day #116) Threshold 100000 fatalities estimated : 08-Aug-2020 (day #186) ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** COVID-19 simulation of the 01-Aug-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr) ---> Data last day, option f (Brazil) : 31-Jul-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Brazil Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 01-Feb-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 31-Jul-2020 (day #181) ---> Today : 01-Aug-2020 (day #182) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.82, qc_inf : 0.084, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 14 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.76204 --------- Estimated initial basic reproduction number (R0) : 10.66 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 91%, Nmax = 191,206,379 Actual estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 1.092 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 31.6 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 94,090 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 92,475 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 446 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (01-Feb-2020) : 310 (07-Dec-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 1312 --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 07-Dec-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 246,656 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 27-Mar-2020 (day #55) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 08-Apr-2020 (day #67) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 01-May-2020 (day #90) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 15-May-2020 (day #104) Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 27-May-2020 (day #116) Threshold 100000 fatalities estimated : 05-Aug-2020 (day #186) ****************************************************************************************** ******************************************************************************************