****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** COVID-19 simulation of the 30-Oct-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr) ---> Data last day, option f (Belgium day #0 : 01-Feb-2020) : 29-Oct-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Belgium Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 01-Feb-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 29-Oct-2020 (day #271) ---> Today : 30-Oct-2020 (day #272) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.31%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.73, qc_inf : 0.056, tau_ref : 23, Dtau : 6 From day #145 --> qc_0 : 0.125, qc_inf : 0.065, tau_ref : 180, Dtau : 10 From day #214 --> qc_0 : 0.13, qc_inf : 0.13, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 1 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.8087 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 8.76 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 89%, Nmax = 10,151,781 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.56 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 44 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 10,562 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 11,308 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 922 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (01-Feb-2020) : 69 (10-Apr-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 275 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (18-Mar-2020) : 23 (10-Apr-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 340 days until 06-Jan-2021 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #340) : 110,276 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 22-Mar-2020 (day #50) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 31-Mar-2020 (day #59) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 27-Sep-2020 (day #239) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 05-Dec-2020 (day #308) Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 15-Dec-2020 (day #318) Threshold 100000 fatalities estimated : 04-Jan-2021 (day #338) --------- Day of the end of the lockdown (03-May-2020) : #92 Estimated number of daily infections (03-May-2020) : 6507 Estimated number of daily deaths (03-May-2020) : 109 Observed number of daily fatalities (03-May-2020) : 79 Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (03-May-2020) : 7765 Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (03-May-2020) : 7844 ****************************************************************************************** ******************************************************************************************