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COVID-19 simulation of the 24-Nov-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option f (Belgium day #0 : 01-Feb-2020) : 23-Nov-2020
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Country : Belgium
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 01-Feb-2020 (day #0)
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---> Last available day in database : 23-Nov-2020 (day #296)
---> Today : 24-Nov-2020 (day #297)
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Manual parameter determination.
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Simulations parameters (infection fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.31%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.73, qc_inf : 0.056, tau_ref : 23, Dtau : 6
From day #135 --> qc_0 : 0.125, qc_inf : 0.045, tau_ref : 170, Dtau : 6
From day #196 --> qc_0 : 0.13, qc_inf : 0.05, tau_ref : 260, Dtau : 8
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Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.82272
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Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 8.76
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 89%, Nmax = 10,151,781
Effective reproduction number (R) : 0.611
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 50.8 (%)
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Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 15,451
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 15,755
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Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 1,348
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Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (01-Feb-2020) : 69 (10-Apr-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 275
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (18-Mar-2020) : 23 (10-Apr-2020)
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Estimated duration of the outbreak : 370 days until 05-Feb-2021
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Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #370) : 18,456
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Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 22-Mar-2020 (day #50)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 31-Mar-2020 (day #59)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 27-Aug-2020 (day #208)
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Day of the end of the first lockdown (03-May-2020) : #92
Estimated number of daily infections (03-May-2020) : 6507
Estimated number of daily deaths (03-May-2020) : 109
Observed number of daily fatalities (03-May-2020) : 79
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (03-May-2020) : 7765
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (03-May-2020) : 7844
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