******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
COVID-19 simulation of the 13-Jan-2021, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option f (Belgium day #0 (tau_f = 20 days) : 11-Feb-2020) : 12-Jan-2021
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : Belgium
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Feb-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 12-Jan-2021 (day #336)
---> Today : 13-Jan-2021 (day #337)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (infection fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.31%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.73, qc_inf : 0.056, tau_ref : 23, Dtau : 6
From day #135 --> qc_0 : 0.125, qc_inf : 0.045, tau_ref : 170, Dtau : 6
From day #196 --> qc_0 : 0.136, qc_inf : 0.05, tau_ref : 257, Dtau : 8
From day #287 --> qc_0 : 0.0833, qc_inf : 0.0833, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 1
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.81428
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 8.76
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 89%, Nmax = 10,151,781
Effective reproduction number (R) : 1
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 59.6 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 19,891
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 20,194
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 1,736
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Feb-2020) : 59 (10-Apr-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 267
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (18-Mar-2020) : 23 (10-Apr-2020)
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 390 days until 07-Mar-2021
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #390) : 23,349
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 22-Mar-2020 (day #40)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 31-Mar-2020 (day #49)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 07-Oct-2020 (day #239)
---------
Day of the end of the first lockdown (03-May-2020) : #82
Estimated number of daily infections (03-May-2020) : 10846
Estimated number of daily deaths (03-May-2020) : 105
Observed number of daily fatalities (03-May-2020) : 79
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (03-May-2020) : 7552
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (03-May-2020) : 7844
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************