****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** COVID-19 simulation of the 01-Aug-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr) ---> Data last day, option f (Belgium) : 02-Aug-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Belgium Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 03-Feb-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 02-Aug-2020 (day #181) ---> Today : 01-Aug-2020 (day #182) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.31%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.73, qc_inf : 0.056, tau_ref : 23, Dtau : 6 From day #145 --> qc_0 : 0.14, qc_inf : 0.14, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.83559 --------- Estimated initial basic reproduction number (R0) : 9.49 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 89%, Nmax = 10,252,413 Actual estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 1.82 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 28.3 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 9,649 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 9,841 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 842 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (03-Feb-2020) : 69 (12-Apr-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 275 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (18-Mar-2020) : 25 (12-Apr-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 218 days until 08-Sep-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #218) : 20,438 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 24-Mar-2020 (day #50) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 02-Apr-2020 (day #59) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 30-Aug-2020 (day #209) --------- Day of the end of the lockdown (03-May-2020) : #90 Estimated number of daily infections (03-May-2020) : 7285 Estimated number of daily deaths (03-May-2020) : 122 Observed number of daily fatalities (03-May-2020) : 109 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** COVID-19 simulation of the 01-Aug-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr) ---> Data last day, option f (Belgium) : 31-Jul-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Belgium Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 01-Feb-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 31-Jul-2020 (day #181) ---> Today : 01-Aug-2020 (day #182) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.31%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.73, qc_inf : 0.056, tau_ref : 23, Dtau : 6 From day #145 --> qc_0 : 0.14, qc_inf : 0.14, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.83559 --------- Estimated initial basic reproduction number (R0) : 9.49 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 89%, Nmax = 10,252,413 Actual estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 1.82 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 28.3 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 9,649 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 9,841 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 842 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (01-Feb-2020) : 69 (10-Apr-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 275 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (18-Mar-2020) : 23 (10-Apr-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 218 days until 06-Sep-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #218) : 20,438 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 22-Mar-2020 (day #50) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 31-Mar-2020 (day #59) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 28-Aug-2020 (day #209) --------- Day of the end of the lockdown (03-May-2020) : #92 Estimated number of daily infections (03-May-2020) : 6507 Estimated number of daily deaths (03-May-2020) : 109 Observed number of daily fatalities (03-May-2020) : 79 ****************************************************************************************** ******************************************************************************************