****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** COVID-19 simulation of the 30-Oct-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr) ---> Data last day, option f (Arizona day #0 : 5-Feb-2020) : 29-Oct-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Arizona Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 5-Feb-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 29-Oct-2020 (day #267) ---> Today : 30-Oct-2020 (day #268) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.28%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.77, qc_inf : 0.084, tau_ref : 3, Dtau : 10 From day #110 --> qc_0 : 0.122, qc_inf : 0.06, tau_ref : 140, Dtau : 10 From day #215 --> qc_0 : 0.083, qc_inf : 0.1, tau_ref : 208, Dtau : 1 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.40837 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 9.24 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 89%, Nmax = 6,492,121 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.2 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 32.5 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 6,044 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 5,918 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 830 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (5-Feb-2020) : 173 (27-Jul-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 83 --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 340 days until 10-Jan-2021 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #340) : 9,131 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 10-Apr-2020 (day #65) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 02-Jun-2020 (day #118) ****************************************************************************************** ******************************************************************************************