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COVID-19 simulation of the 27-Sep-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option f (Arizona day #0 : 5-Feb-2020) : 26-Sep-2020
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Country : Arizona
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 5-Feb-2020 (day #0)
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---> Last available day in database : 26-Sep-2020 (day #234)
---> Today : 27-Sep-2020 (day #235)
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Manual parameter determination.
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Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.28%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.77, qc_inf : 0.084, tau_ref : 3, Dtau : 10
From day #110 --> qc_0 : 0.122, qc_inf : 0.06, tau_ref : 140, Dtau : 10
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Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.37539
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Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 10.01
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 90%, Nmax = 6,552,727
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 0.78
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 29 (%)
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Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 5,773
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 5,622
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Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 793
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Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (5-Feb-2020) : 173 (27-Jul-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 83
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Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 11-Dec-2020
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Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 5,946
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Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 10-Apr-2020 (day #65)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 02-Jun-2020 (day #118)
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