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COVID-19 simulation of the 24-Nov-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option f (Arizona day #0 : 5-Feb-2020) : 23-Nov-2020
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Country : Arizona
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 5-Feb-2020 (day #0)
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---> Last available day in database : 23-Nov-2020 (day #292)
---> Today : 24-Nov-2020 (day #293)
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Manual parameter determination.
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Simulations parameters (infection fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.28%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.77, qc_inf : 0.084, tau_ref : 3, Dtau : 10
From day #110 --> qc_0 : 0.122, qc_inf : 0.06, tau_ref : 140, Dtau : 10
From day #215 --> qc_0 : 0.083, qc_inf : 0.12, tau_ref : 208, Dtau : 20
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Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.38834
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Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 9.24
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 89%, Nmax = 6,492,121
Effective reproduction number (R) : 1.424
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 44.1 (%)
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Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 6,477
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 6,464
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Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 890
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Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (5-Feb-2020) : 173 (27-Jul-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 83
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Estimated duration of the outbreak : 370 days until 09-Feb-2021
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Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #370) : 56,335
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Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 10-Apr-2020 (day #65)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 02-Jun-2020 (day #118)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 27-Dec-2020 (day #326)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 18-Jan-2021 (day #348)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 27-Jan-2021 (day #357)
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