****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** COVID-19 simulation of the 01-Aug-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr) ---> Data last day, option f (Arizona) : 31-Jul-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Arizona Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 5-Feb-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 31-Jul-2020 (day #177) ---> Today : 01-Aug-2020 (day #178) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.28%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.77, qc_inf : 0.084, tau_ref : 3, Dtau : 10 From day #110 --> qc_0 : 0.11, qc_inf : 0.11, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 1 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.46154 --------- Estimated initial basic reproduction number (R0) : 10.01 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 90%, Nmax = 6,552,727 Actual estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 1.43 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 56.8 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 3,677 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 3,694 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 505 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (5-Feb-2020) by herd immunity : 180 (03-Aug-2020) No outbreak peak by lockdown -> residual contamination rate must be lowered. --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 180 days until 03-Aug-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #180) : 13,109 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 10-Apr-2020 (day #65) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 02-Jun-2020 (day #118) ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** COVID-19 simulation of the 01-Aug-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr) ---> Data last day, option f (Arizona) : 31-Jul-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Arizona Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 5-Feb-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 31-Jul-2020 (day #177) ---> Today : 01-Aug-2020 (day #178) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.28%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.77, qc_inf : 0.084, tau_ref : 3, Dtau : 10 From day #110 --> qc_0 : 0.11, qc_inf : 0.11, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 1 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.46154 --------- Estimated initial basic reproduction number (R0) : 10.01 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 90%, Nmax = 6,552,727 Actual estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 1.43 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 56.8 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 3,677 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 3,694 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 505 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (5-Feb-2020) by herd immunity : 180 (03-Aug-2020) No outbreak peak by lockdown -> residual contamination rate must be lowered. --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 180 days until 03-Aug-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #180) : 13,109 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 10-Apr-2020 (day #65) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 02-Jun-2020 (day #118) ****************************************************************************************** ******************************************************************************************